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The latest Bet Better model pick for Paolo Banchero is Under 8.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +15.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
NBA

Paolo Banchero

Orlando Magic

+15.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 8.5 -130 (1.77)
+15.8% Edge
Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic
Kia Center, Orlando, FL · Indoor
Fri 17 Apr, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.3%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+15.8%
Predicted Value
7.1 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds72.3%—56.5%1.38+15.8%

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AI Analysis

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Paolo Banchero (Orlando Magic) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-130)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Orlando Magic prepare to host the Charlotte Hornets, all eyes will be on Paolo Banchero, but a closer look suggests the under on his rebounds might be the savvy play. While he's been a force on the boards lately, averaging nearly 9.6 rebounds over his last five games, a deeper dive reveals that his home numbers tell a different story-he's only pulling down 7.8 rebounds in Orlando. Against the Hornets, his averages dip even further, with just 6.4 boards in their recent encounters, and a meager 5.6 when playing at home. Given that he has hit under 8.5 rebounds in three of their last four matchups, it seems the trend favors a tighter performance. With an expected stat value of just 7.06, betting the under could be a shrewd move in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
1.9avg · last 10
L52.4Szn1.9Home1.8Away2.0Best6
1+81%
2+58%
3+33%
4+17%
Game log vs O 1.5avg 1.9 · hi 4 · lo 0
0322042222

Paolo Banchero is averaging 1.9 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 1.9, best 6). He clears 2+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Double-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
23%double-double rate · 2024-25
L1040%Home11%Away36%
Game log · double-double4 / 10 DD

Paolo Banchero posted a double-double in 23% of 2024-25 games (4 of his last 10).

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
26.9avg · last 10
L529.4Szn26.1Home26.0Away26.1Best50
16+90%
21+71%
26+50%
31+37%
36+12%
Game log vs O 25.5avg 26.9 · hi 36 · lo 15
24333315173632293119

Paolo Banchero is averaging 26.9 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.1, best 50). He clears 26+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
31.9avg · last 10
L533.6Szn30.8Home31.0Away30.6Best59
21+92%
26+65%
31+46%
36+31%
41+12%
Game log vs O 30.5avg 31.9 · hi 41 · lo 21
28413721244039303425

Paolo Banchero is averaging 31.9 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 30.8, best 59). He clears 31+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
36.2avg · last 10
L537.8Szn33.7Home33.2Away34.2Best63
24+85%
29+62%
34+50%
39+29%
44+19%
Game log vs O 33.5avg 36.2 · hi 51 · lo 19
34514319264741353828

Paolo Banchero is averaging 36.2 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 33.7, best 63). He clears 34+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
41.2avg · last 10
L542.0Szn38.4Home38.2Away38.7Best72
28+88%
33+65%
38+48%
43+31%
48+21%
Game log vs O 37.5avg 41.2 · hi 59 · lo 25
38594725335148364134

Paolo Banchero is averaging 41.2 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 38.4, best 72). He clears 38+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
9.3avg · last 10
L58.4Szn7.6Home7.2Away8.1Best18
4+98%
6+83%
8+44%
10+23%
12+6%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 9.3 · hi 18 · lo 4
10181049119679

Paolo Banchero is averaging 9.3 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.6, best 18). He clears 8+ in 44% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
14.3avg · last 10
L512.6Szn12.4Home12.1Away12.6Best26
6+100%
9+87%
12+56%
15+25%
18+6%
Game log vs O 11.5avg 14.3 · hi 26 · lo 7
1426141016151671015

Paolo Banchero is averaging 14.3 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 12.4, best 26). He clears 12+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Steals2024-25 · formNo line posted
0.6avg · last 10
L50.6Szn0.8Home0.7Away0.8Best4
1+54%
2+15%
3+4%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
2000110200

Paolo Banchero is averaging 0.6 steals over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 0.8, best 4). He clears 1+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Triple-Double2024-25 seasonNo line posted
0.0%triple-double rate · 2024-25

Paolo Banchero recorded a triple-double in 0.0% of 2024-25 games (2 in the last 211 on record).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Rebounds 8.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Rebounds 10.5 Under -345 ✓ HIT
15 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Rebounds 10.5 Under -313 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls Points — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans Pts + Rebs + Asts — — — Pending

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About This Player

Paolo Banchero (Orlando Magic) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Paolo Banchero is Under 8.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.8% on this pick. Their next game is Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic on Friday 17 April at Kia Center, Orlando. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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