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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lonzo Ball is Under 15.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On the Points + Rebounds + Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:52AM UTC
NBA

Lonzo Ball

Chicago Bulls

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 15.5 -128 (1.78) · $100→$178
+3.3% Edge
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls
United Center, Chicago, IL · Indoor
Thu 18 Dec, 1:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
59.5%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
13.6 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts59.5%56.2%1.68+3.3%

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AI Analysis

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Lonzo Ball (Chicago Bulls) Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Lonzo Ball for Under 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists in the Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers game is supported by several statistical factors. Firstly, the expected stat value for Ball in this game is 13.65, which is significantly lower than the outcome point of 15.5. This suggests that Ball's performance is predicted to fall short of the threshold of this bet. Furthermore, the home hit rate over the last 20 games has been 60%, indicating that in most recent home games, the under bet has been successful. Additionally, the implied probability of 56.2% also leans toward Ball not reaching the 15.5 point threshold across his points, rebounds, and assists. Therefore, based on Ball's expected performance, recent home game trends, and the implied probability, the under bet seems to be the more statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Lonzo Ball — 2024-25 season averages

Over 35 games in the 2024-25 season, Lonzo Ball averaged 7.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 22.1 minutes per game, shooting 36.6% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range.

7.6
PPG
3.4
RPG
3.3
APG
1.3
SPG
0.5
BPG
22.1
MPG
36.6%
FG%
34.4%
3P%

Lonzo Ball — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Lonzo Ball has played 25.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

25.8
MPG (L5)
10.4
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Lonzo Ball — points hit rate

Lonzo Ball has scored over 11.5 points in 48% of 270 career games.

o11.548%
o12.541%
o15.526%

Lonzo Ball — home vs away scoring

At home Lonzo Ball averages 8.2 points per game; on the road, 6.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

8.2
PPG at home
6.9
PPG on the road

Lonzo Ball — scoring by opponent

Lonzo Ball scores most against the HOU, averaging 15.5 points per game in that matchup.

15.5
HOU
13.3
DAL
11.6
POR
11.4
UTAH
10.3
SA

Lonzo Ball — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Lonzo Ball has averaged 10.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
28 Febvs TOR341422
26 Febvs LAC281543
24 Feb@ PHI8621
22 Febvs PHX29331
20 Feb@ NY301444
4 Febvs MIA29552
2 Feb@ DET281342
31 Jan@ TOR25535
29 Jan@ BOS23934
27 Janvs DEN251840
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Dec 25 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls Pts + Rebs + Asts 15.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Lonzo Ball (Chicago Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lonzo Ball is Under 15.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls on Thursday 18 December at United Center, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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