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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lonzo Ball is Under 15.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts.
On the Pts + Rebs + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
NBA

Lonzo Ball

Chicago Bulls

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 15.5 -128 (1.78)
+3.3% Edge
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls
United Center, Chicago, IL · Indoor
Thu 18 Dec, 1:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
59.5%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
13.6 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts59.5%—56.2%1.68+3.3%

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AI Analysis

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Lonzo Ball (Chicago Bulls) Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Lonzo Ball for Under 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists in the Chicago Bulls vs Cleveland Cavaliers game is supported by several statistical factors. Firstly, the expected stat value for Ball in this game is 13.65, which is significantly lower than the outcome point of 15.5. This suggests that Ball's performance is predicted to fall short of the threshold of this bet. Furthermore, the home hit rate over the last 20 games has been 60%, indicating that in most recent home games, the under bet has been successful. Additionally, the implied probability of 56.2% also leans toward Ball not reaching the 15.5 point threshold across his points, rebounds, and assists. Therefore, based on Ball's expected performance, recent home game trends, and the implied probability, the under bet seems to be the more statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
16.0avg · last 10
L515.6Szn14.3Home14.6Away13.9Best47
4+100%
9+91%
14+49%
19+26%
24+3%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 16 · hi 22 · lo 7
221613191222792218

Lonzo Ball is averaging 16.0 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 14.3, best 47). He clears 14+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Dec 25 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls Pts + Rebs + Asts 15.5 Under -128 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Lonzo Ball (Chicago Bulls) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lonzo Ball is Under 15.5 on Pts + Rebs + Asts. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls on Thursday 18 December at United Center, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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