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The latest Bet Better model pick for Troy Johnston is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +23.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 1, 4:01AM UTC
MLB

Troy Johnston

COL

+23.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -164 (1.61)
+23.1% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies
Coors Field, Denver, Colorado · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 12:40AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
85.2%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+23.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases85.2%—62.1%1.17+23.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Troy Johnston (COL) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Rockies host the Royals, all eyes will be on Troy Johnston, but backing him to go over 1.5 total bases feels like a stretch. Johnston has been in a bit of a slump, struggling to find his rhythm at the plate lately. His recent performances paint a picture of inconsistency, with a modest batting average that dips even lower against right-handed pitching—something the Royals will bring with their starter on Saturday. Moreover, the Rockies' home park has not been the offensive haven it once was, with a noticeable dip in run production in recent weeks. The Royals' bullpen has also been surprisingly effective, often stifling opposing bats when it matters most. With Johnston's recent trends and the matchup dynamics, betting the under on his total bases seems like a savvy play—especially with the odds indicating a strong likelihood of him falling short in this contest.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2053%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

Troy Johnston MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%

Troy Johnston MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2058%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Troy Johnston MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Troy Johnston MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Troy Johnston MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

Troy Johnston MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Troy Johnston MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -200 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Troy Johnston (COL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Troy Johnston is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.1% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies on Saturday 1 August at Coors Field, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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