Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Shane McClanahan is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 60%, implied 64%, edge +11.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 18, 7:21AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 1.5
-179 (1.56) · $100→$156
+11.0% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 754 of 1,520 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs BAL @ TB
updated Aug 17, 10:05PM UTC
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How often this wins
75 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 75.1% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +11.0%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 75.1% | 60.4% | 64.1% | 1.68 | +11.0% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/0 |
| Last 5 games | 0/0 |
| Last 10 games | 0/0 |
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Shane McClanahan (TBR) Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-179)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Tampa Bay Rays play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Shane McClanahan (TBR) Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-179). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.59 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Hit-rate ladder: SO
Shane McClanahan has gone over 2.5 SO in 0% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o2.50%
o3.50%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Shane McClanahan (TBR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shane McClanahan is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.0% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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