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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Stroman is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +4.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 2:11PM UTC
MLB

Marcus Stroman

NYY

+4.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1429 (1.07)
+4.8% Edge
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Sun 20 Jul, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
98.3%
Implied Probability
93.5%
Model Edge
+4.8%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed98.3%93.5%1.02+4.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Stroman (NYY) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Marcus Stroman for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is supported by his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Stroman's average hits allowed, both overall and away, have consistently exceeded 2.5. His overall average hits allowed is 5.4, and his away average is even higher at 6. Additionally, his average innings pitched per game, which is under 4, suggests he stays on the mound long enough to allow more than 2.5 hits. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, further indicate a pattern of allowing hits. Finally, his past performance against the Braves, with an average of 4.3 hits allowed, suggests he's likely to allow over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game. All these statistics point to a high probability of the Over 2.5 outcome.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2070%
O 2.580%
O 3.510%
O 4.530%

Marcus Stroman MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak24L20100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.590%
O 4.570%
O 5.540%
O 6.540%
O 7.530%

Marcus Stroman MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak3L2080%
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.530%

Marcus Stroman MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Marcus Stroman (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Stroman is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves on Sunday 20 July at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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