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The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Stroman is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +10.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 7:56AM UTC
MLB

Marcus Stroman

NYY

+10.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 3.5 -455 (1.22)
+10.4% Edge
New York Yankees @ Atlanta Braves
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia · Outdoor
Sun 20 Jul, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.4%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+10.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed92.4%—82.0%1.08+10.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Stroman (NYY) Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Over 3.5 bet on Marcus Stroman in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is driven by his recent performance and trends. Over the last five games, Stroman's average hits allowed both overall and away are significantly higher than the line of 3.5, standing at 5.4 and 6 respectively. Despite pitching fewer innings away, he still allows more hits on average. Additionally, when facing the Braves, his hits allowed average is 4.3, still above the set line. Even considering his overall current hit streak is at 1, this trend suggests a likelihood of him allowing over 3.5 hits in the upcoming game. Therefore, based on Stroman's recent performance data, the Over 3.5 bet seems a sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2070%
O 2.580%
O 3.510%
O 4.530%

Marcus Stroman MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak24L20100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.590%
O 4.570%
O 5.540%
O 6.540%
O 7.530%

Marcus Stroman MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak3L2080%
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.530%

Marcus Stroman MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Marcus Stroman (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Stroman is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves on Sunday 20 July at Truist Park, Atlanta. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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