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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyle Hendricks is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 77%, for a model edge of +10.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Kyle Hendricks

LAA

+10.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -333 (1.30)
+10.0% Edge
Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Thu 4 Sep, 11:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
86.9%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+10.0%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks86.9%76.9%1.15+10.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Kyle Hendricks (LAA) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kyle Hendricks for Over 0.5 in Pitcher Walks Allowed is statistically sound. Over his last five games, Hendricks has averaged 1.8 walks overall and 2.4 walks when playing away. This is significantly higher than the line of 0.5, indicating a strong likelihood he will exceed this threshold. His innings pitched (IP) and outs averages also support this, as they show he typically stays in the game long enough to potentially give up a walk. Although he has averaged 0.5 walks against the Royals in the past, his current form, particularly in away games, suggests this may increase. His ongoing hit streaks further underline his vulnerability to allowing hits, which often come with walks. Therefore, based on his recent performance and current form, betting on Hendricks to allow over 0.5 walks is a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 5.510%
O 6.510%

Kyle Hendricks MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak2L2080%
O 3.570%
O 4.540%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%

Kyle Hendricks MLB hits allowed: cleared over 3.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak3L2085%
O 0.590%
O 1.570%

Kyle Hendricks MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2avg earned runs · L5
Streak2

Kyle Hendricks MLB earned runs: averaging 2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
16.4avg outs · L5

Kyle Hendricks MLB outs: averaging 16.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Kyle Hendricks (LAA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyle Hendricks is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +10.0% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals on Thursday 4 September at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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