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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyle Freeland is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +20.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 7:59AM UTC
MLB

Kyle Freeland

COL

+20.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -263 (1.38)
+20.0% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Coors Field, Denver, Colorado · Outdoor
Tue 19 Aug, 12:40AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.4%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+20.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts92.4%—72.5%1.08+20.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/0
Last 5 games0/0
Last 10 games0/0

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AI Analysis

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Kyle Freeland (COL) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-263)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Kyle Freeland's recent performance data supports the Over 2.5 strikeouts bet. Averaging 3.8 strikeouts in his last five games overall and at home, he consistently surpasses the 2.5 line. Against the Dodgers, his strikeout average increases to 4.8, further bolstering confidence in the bet. His innings pitched (IP) average of 5.1 overall and 5 at home indicates he typically plays long enough to secure more than 2.5 strikeouts. Even his lowest average, the 5 innings pitched at home, provides ample opportunity to exceed the line. Furthermore, his outs average is consistently above 15, suggesting a high level of performance. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his strikeout, innings pitched, and outs averages provide a solid statistical foundation for the Over 2.5 strikeouts bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2080%
O 2.570%
O 3.550%
O 4.530%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%

Kyle Freeland MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2085%
O 3.570%
O 4.570%
O 5.570%
O 6.560%
O 7.540%
O 8.520%
O 9.510%

Kyle Freeland MLB hits allowed: cleared over 3.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Kyle Freeland MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.8avg earned runs · L5

Kyle Freeland MLB earned runs: averaging 2.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
15.6avg outs · L5
L2060%

Kyle Freeland MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Kyle Freeland (COL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyle Freeland is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.0% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies on Tuesday 19 August at Coors Field, Denver. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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