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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jacob Lopez is Under 6.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 79%, for a model edge of +16.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 30, 7:28AM UTC
MLB

Jacob Lopez

ATH

+16.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Under 6.5 -370 (1.27)
+16.1% Edge
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics
Fri 31 Jul, 1:40AM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs BOS @ ATH
updated Jul 30, 1:40AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.9%
Implied Probability
78.7%
Model Edge
+16.1%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed94.9%78.7%1.05+16.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/8

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AI Analysis

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Jacob Lopez (ATH) Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Athletics gear up to host the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Jacob Lopez, who’s been a revelation on the mound lately. With his impressive strikeout rate climbing and a WHIP that reveals just how tough he is to hit, Lopez has been virtually untouchable, especially against right-handed batters. He’s allowed only a handful of hits in his last few outings, and facing a Boston lineup that’s been struggling to find its rhythm could play right into his hands. The Red Sox have been inconsistent at the plate, often failing to string together solid at-bats, and that could hinder their chances against Lopez. When you couple his recent form with the A's home advantage, it’s easy to see why the smart money is on the ‘Under 6.5’ hits allowed. Lopez is poised to keep the Red Sox bats quiet, making this an enticing opportunity for savvy bettors.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

2 markets live
Pitcher - StrikeoutsUpcoming gameU 8.5 -588+14.3% edge

Jacob Lopez MLB strikeouts. Current line U 8.5 at -588 (+14.3% model edge).

Pitcher - Hits AllowedUpcoming gameU 6.5 -370+16.1% edge

Jacob Lopez MLB hits allowed. Current line U 6.5 at -370 (+16.1% model edge).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Athletics Pitcher - Earned Runs 3.5 Under -159 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ Athletics Pitcher - Hits Allowed 5.5 Under -167 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Jacob Lopez (ATH) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jacob Lopez is Under 6.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.1% on this pick. Their next game is Boston Red Sox vs Athletics on Friday 31 July. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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