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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for German Marquez is Over 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 86%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +15.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

German Marquez

COL

+15.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 4.5 -233 (1.43)
+15.7% Edge
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park, San Francisco, California · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 8:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
85.6%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+15.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed85.6%69.9%1.17+15.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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German Marquez (COL) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on German Marquez to allow over 4.5 hits is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. In his last five overall games, Marquez has averaged 5.4 hits allowed, which is above the line set for this game. This trend continues in away games, where he has allowed an average of 5.6 hits. Against the Giants specifically, his hits allowed average increases to 6.3. His innings pitched averages are also relatively low, indicating he's allowing a high number of hits in a shorter period of time. The current hit streaks further support this bet, with Marquez on a three-game overall and two-game away hit streak. All these statistics indicate a high probability of Marquez allowing over 4.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
L2090%

German Marquez MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak3L2070%

German Marquez MLB hits allowed: cleared over 4.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3.6avg earned runs · L5
Streak2

German Marquez MLB earned runs: averaging 3.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
12.2avg outs · L5
L2060%

German Marquez MLB outs: averaging 12.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

German Marquez (COL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for German Marquez is Over 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants on Saturday 27 September at Oracle Park, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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