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The latest Bet Better model pick for Erick Fedde is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +27.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Erick Fedde

WSN

+27.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 -115 (1.87)
+27.8% Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 30 Jun, 10:35PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs CHW @ TEX
updated Jul 21, 12:05AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
81.3%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+27.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts81.3%—53.5%1.23+27.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Erick Fedde (WSN) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Orioles gear up to take on the White Sox, all eyes will be on Erick Fedde, who’s had a mixed bag of performances lately. Coming off a recent stretch where he’s recorded only two strikeouts in his last outing against a weaker lineup, Fedde’s strikeout rate has been dipping. The White Sox, while they’ve had their struggles at the plate, have shown a tendency to put the ball in play, ranking among the lower half in strikeouts this season. Moreover, Fedde’s tendency to pitch to contact—coupled with the White Sox’ recent uptick in making solid contact—creates a scenario where the under on 3.5 strikeouts seems enticing. With his recent form and the matchup dynamics, it’s hard to envision him surpassing that number, making this bet an intriguing play as we look for value in the pitching duel tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak2L2070%
O 2.560%
O 3.530%
O 4.530%
O 5.520%
O 6.520%

Erick Fedde MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak2L2085%
O 2.580%
O 3.580%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%

Erick Fedde MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.550%
O 2.550%
O 3.520%

Erick Fedde MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2avg earned runs · L5

Erick Fedde MLB earned runs: averaging 2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jun 26 Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
19 Jun 26 Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under -110 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Erick Fedde (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Erick Fedde is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.8% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 30 June at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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