Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Cease is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 59%, for a model edge of +23.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 9, 11:29AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 4.5
-143 (1.70)
+23.8% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Chicago Cubs
Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 6:20PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 498 of 903 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Implied Probability
58.8%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 82.6% | — | 58.8% | 1.21 | +23.8% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 3/5 |
| Last 10 games | 5/10 |
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Dylan Cease (CHW) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-143)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Chicago Cubs play Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Dylan Cease (CHW) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-143). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -143 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.99 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.5100%
O 3.5100%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.510%
O 8.520%
O 9.510%
Dylan Cease MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 1.5100%
O 2.580%
O 3.580%
O 4.550%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%
Dylan Cease MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.530%
O 3.520%
Dylan Cease MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted Dylan Cease MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Dylan Cease MLB outs: cleared over 13.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Dylan Cease (CHW) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Cease is Under 4.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.8% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs on Thursday 6 August at Wrigley Field, Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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