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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Cease is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 43%, for a model edge of +29.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 3:38AM UTC
MLB

Dylan Cease

MLB

+29.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Under 1.5 +135 (2.35)
+29.1% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington · Indoor
Sat 4 Jul, 8:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
42.6%
Model Edge
+29.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks71.7%—42.6%1.40+29.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Dylan Cease (NA) Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mariners host the Blue Jays on July 4th, all eyes will be on Dylan Cease's ability to control the game from the mound. Cease has been nothing short of impressive lately, showcasing remarkable command with only a 1.05 walks-per-game average. This season, he’s managed to keep hitters off balance, evident in his impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Blue Jays' plate discipline has been inconsistent, especially against hard-throwing pitchers like Cease. They tend to chase pitches outside the zone, which plays right into Cease's strengths. Moreover, the Mariners’ defense has been solid behind him, limiting opportunities for free passes. Given Cease's recent form and the Blue Jays' struggles at the plate, betting on him to stay under 1.5 walks seems like a savvy play. With the odds favoring this outcome, it’s a risk worth taking as Seattle aims to ride the momentum at home.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak14L2095%
O 2.5100%
O 3.590%
O 4.560%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%
O 7.510%
O 8.520%
O 9.510%

Dylan Cease MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak14L2080%
O 1.5100%
O 2.580%
O 3.560%
O 4.550%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%

Dylan Cease MLB hits allowed: cleared over 1.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak6L2090%
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.530%
O 3.520%

Dylan Cease MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
3.4avg earned runs · L5
Streak3L2060%

Dylan Cease MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 3.4 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
15.2avg outs · L5
L2070%

Dylan Cease MLB outs: cleared over 13.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 15.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dylan Cease is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Cease is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.1% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners on Saturday 4 July at T-Mobile Park, Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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