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The latest Bet Better model pick for Clarke Schmidt is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 92%, for a model edge of +3.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:37PM UTC
MLB

Clarke Schmidt

NYY

+3.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -1111 (1.09) · $100→$109
+3.4% Edge
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sat 17 May, 5:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
OUT
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Schmidt (elbow) has resumed playing catch without issue and should get back on a mound in the "next couple days," Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
updated Aug 9, 4:13PM UTC
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Model Probability
95.2%
Implied Probability
91.7%
Model Edge
+3.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks95.2%—91.7%1.05+3.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Clarke Schmidt (NYY) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Clarke Schmidt for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is backed by his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Schmidt has an average of 2.6 walks allowed overall and 2 walks allowed at home. Against the Mets, his walks allowed average increases to 3. This suggests a tendency to give away more walks, especially against this specific opponent. Additionally, his innings pitched and outs averages are relatively low, indicating he often doesn't stay long in the game. This could potentially lead to more pressure on Schmidt, increasing the likelihood of walks. His current hit streak of 9 overall and 4 at home also shows a pattern of allowing hits, which could translate into walks. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on Over 0.5 for Schmidt's walks allowed is a reasonable choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak2L2090%
O 2.590%
O 3.580%
O 4.580%
O 5.560%
O 6.540%
O 7.510%

Clarke Schmidt MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak32L20100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.560%
O 4.530%
O 5.520%
O 6.530%

Clarke Schmidt MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
Streak4L2080%
O 0.570%
O 1.560%
O 2.550%
O 3.510%

Clarke Schmidt MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
3.2avg earned runs · L5

Clarke Schmidt MLB earned runs: averaging 3.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
14.4avg outs · L5

Clarke Schmidt MLB outs: averaging 14.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Clarke Schmidt (NYY) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Clarke Schmidt is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs New York Yankees on Saturday 17 May at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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