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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bowden Francis is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +9.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
MLB

Bowden Francis

TOR

+9.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -667 (1.15)
+9.7% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 14 Jun, 8:05PM
OUT
The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 74d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.6%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+9.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts96.6%87.0%1.03+9.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Bowden Francis (TOR) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-667)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Bowden Francis' performance data strongly suggests that he can achieve over 2.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game. His recent performance shows a high strikeout rate, with an overall average of 4.8 strikeouts per game and an even higher average of 5.8 strikeouts when playing away. His innings pitched also indicate a significant presence on the mound, averaging 5.5 innings overall and 6.1 innings when playing away. This provides ample opportunity for him to achieve more than 2.5 strikeouts. Although his average strikeouts against the Phillies is slightly lower at 3, it is still above the target. Additionally, Francis is on a hit streak both overall and away, further supporting the expectation of a strong performance. These statistics indicate a high probability of Francis achieving over 2.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak6L2060%
O 2.590%
O 3.590%
O 4.570%
O 5.540%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Bowden Francis MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2055%
O 2.560%
O 3.540%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%

Bowden Francis MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak7L2060%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Bowden Francis MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.6avg earned runs · L5

Bowden Francis MLB earned runs: averaging 1.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bowden Francis (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bowden Francis is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.7% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday 14 June at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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