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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bowden Francis is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 84%, for a model edge of +12.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:40PM UTC
MLB

Bowden Francis

TOR

+12.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -526 (1.19) · $100→$119
+12.6% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 14 Jun, 8:05PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
OUT
The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 94d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.6%
Implied Probability
84.0%
Model Edge
+12.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts96.6%84.0%1.03+12.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Bowden Francis (TOR) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Bowden Francis has been consistently performing well with an overall strikeout average of 4.8 in the last 5 games, nearly double the line set for this bet. His performance on the road is even more impressive, with an average of 5.8 strikeouts in the last 5 away games. Furthermore, he has been on a strikeout streak in both overall and away games, with 6 consecutive games of hitting the mark, indicating a strong form. While his average against the Phillies is slightly lower at 3, it's still above the line. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he's staying in games long enough to achieve the required strikeouts. Therefore, based on his current form and past performance, betting on Bowden Francis to get over 2.5 strikeouts is a statistically sound decision.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak6L2060%
O 2.590%
O 3.590%
O 4.570%
O 5.540%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Bowden Francis MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2055%
O 2.560%
O 3.540%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%

Bowden Francis MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak7L2060%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Bowden Francis MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.6avg earned runs · L5

Bowden Francis MLB earned runs: averaging 1.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Bowden Francis (TOR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bowden Francis is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.6% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday 14 June at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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