Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Ober is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a calibrated win probability of 60%, versus the book's implied 48%, for a model edge of +27.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:12PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs
Under 2.5
+108 (2.08) · $100→$208
+27.8% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
Minnesota Twins
Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota · Outdoor
Tue 11 Aug, 11:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs BAL @ MIN
updated Aug 11, 11:40PM UTC
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Implied Probability
48.1%
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Earned Runs | 75.8% | 59.5% | 48.1% | 2.06 | +27.8% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 2/3 |
| Last 5 games | 3/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Bailey Ober Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Minnesota Twins play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Ober Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+108). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Recent form (last 5 games)
Bailey Ober is averaging 5.8 hits, 1.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.
Hit-rate ladder: SO
Bailey Ober has gone over 2.5 SO in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o2.5100%
o3.590%
o4.570%
o5.550%
o6.530%
o7.540%
Home / away and opponent splits
Bailey Ober is averaging 5.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.8 in home games, including his recent form against DET.
Bailey Ober is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Ober is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.8% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins on Tuesday 11 August at Target Field, Minneapolis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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