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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Seattle Mariners

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game Picks
9
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Seattle Mariners (Moneyline)
For Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners (MLB), model win probability 54.9%, fair odds 1.82, book price +297, model edge +29.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Jun 2026, 8:10PM at T-Mobile Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Julio Rodriguez CFDay-to-day
  • J.P. Crawford SSDay-to-day
  • Rob Refsnyder DHOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

George Kirby SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 4:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Durbin Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1Win rec7-3

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1ATS10-4

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
2.1implied team total
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 1.2 runs per game (3-2) while Boston Red Sox are at 1.4 (2-3); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Boston Red Sox.

1.2
Seattle Mariners runs/G
1.4
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersBoston Red Sox
Runs / game1.21.4
Hits / game2.24.2
Home runs / game0.00.6
Walks drawn / game0.81.4
Batter K / game3.44.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.61.6
Pitching K / game3.83.2
Walks allowed / game0.20.8
L5 record3-22-3

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.</p>

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Seattle Mariners +3 (-256)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Seattle Mariners +3.5 (-323)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Over 7.5 Total Runs (+154)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Under 6 Total Runs (+160)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Over 8 Total Runs (+170)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Seattle Mariners +4.5 (-667)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
21 Jun 26 Moneyline Seattle Mariners ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners 1.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners 2 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners 4.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 21 June 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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