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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Seattle Mariners

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:47AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
9
Props graded
68.2%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Seattle Mariners -1 Spread +750

The model graded 29 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $850 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 68.2% across 22 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Jun 2026, 8:10PM at T-Mobile Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.1%
The price says11.8%
Best price+750
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Seattle Mariners -1 Lean47% chance +750
Spread High66% chance
Spread Long-shot38% chance
Spread Lean42% chance
Moneyline Lean55% chance
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Spread High70% chance
Spread High74% chance
Spread High78% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 2 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Total Bases × 1 prop Highup to 100%
Batter - Singles × 1 prop Highup to 97%
Batter - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 100%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 30 bookmakers compared
Winner
Mariners2.47+147BetOnline
Boston Red Sox1.65-154Hard Rock Bet
Total runs
Over81.98-102LowVig
Under81.91-110FanDuel

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Seattle Mariners
+1
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Emerson Hancock SPOut
  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Brendan Donovan 3BOut
  • Colt Emerson SSOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Gilbert SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 9:52PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Hits
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases
Caleb Durbin Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Singles

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
1.6runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 29 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners — 20 on the game itself and 9 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
9
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 29 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 28 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 2 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4TORAway
L1–8TORAway
W4–1PHIHome
L0–6PHIHome
W9–2PHIHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
L0–4MIAAway
W7–3MIAAway

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 1.2 runs per game (3-2) while Boston Red Sox are at 1.4 (2-3); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Boston Red Sox.

1.2
Seattle Mariners runs/G
1.4
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersBoston Red Sox
Runs / game1.21.4
Hits / game2.24.2
Home runs / game0.00.6
Walks drawn / game0.81.4
Batter K / game3.44.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.61.6
Pitching K / game3.83.2
Walks allowed / game0.20.8
L5 record3-22-3

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Seattle Mariners won 1, Boston Red Sox won 2.

DateSeattle MarinersBoston Red SoxWinner
Jun 2115Boston Red Sox
Jun 2131Seattle Mariners
Jun 2026Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Emerson Hancock SPOUT
Matt Brash RPOUT
Brendan Donovan 3BOUT
Colt Emerson SSOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Seattle Mariners +3 (-256)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
22
Total Picks
68.2%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +1.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +2.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +2 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +3.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +1 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 6 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Moneyline Seattle Mariners ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Under 5.5 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +3 ✓ HIT
21 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 June 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 9 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 68.2% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 22 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 12–10 across the last 22 meetings · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners3–1Seattle Mariners
20 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners1–5Boston Red Sox
19 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners2–6Boston Red Sox
18 Jun 2025Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners1–3Boston Red Sox
17 Jun 2025Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners8–0Seattle Mariners
16 Jun 2025Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners0–2Boston Red Sox
24 Apr 2025Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox3–4Seattle Mariners
23 Apr 2025Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox5–8Seattle Mariners
22 Apr 2025Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox8–3Boston Red Sox
31 Jul 2024Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox3–2Boston Red Sox

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 22 meetings on file.

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