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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Seattle Mariners

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 10:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Indoor
Sun 21 Jun 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
9
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Seattle Mariners (Moneyline)
The model graded 29 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $397 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 54.9%, fair odds 1.82, book price +297, model edge +29.7%. Tip-off Sun 21 Jun 2026, 8:10PM at T-Mobile Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Boston Red Sox -2.5 · $100 returned $460

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Seattle MarinersMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Seattle MarinersSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHDay-to-day
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sonny Gray SP

Seattle Mariners

  • Matt Brash RPOut
  • Cooper Criswell RPOut
  • J.P. Crawford SSOut
  • Carlos Vargas RPOut
  • Cole Wilcox RPOut
  • Luke Raley RFOut
  • Will Wilson 3BOut
  • Logan Evans SPOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Durbin Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Durbin Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Wilyer Abreu BOS Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSeattle MarinersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Seattle Mariners moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Run LineSeattle Mariners run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1Free board10-9

Seattle Mariners spread form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Seattle Mariners total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSeattle Mariners team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Boston Red Sox L54-1

Seattle Mariners team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners — what the model found

Our model graded 29 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners — 20 on the game itself and 9 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
9
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 29 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 28 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — recent results

Seattle Mariners have won 1 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5.

Seattle Mariners — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–3TBHome
L1–4TBHome
L1–2TBHome
W4–2DETHome
L0–11DETHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4ATHHome
L3–7ATHHome
W13–1ATHHome
W12–11CHWHome
W4–0CHWHome

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Seattle Mariners are scoring 1.2 runs per game (3-2) while Boston Red Sox are at 1.4 (2-3); Seattle Mariners pitchers are allowing 0.6 earned runs per game versus 1.6 for Boston Red Sox.

1.2
Seattle Mariners runs/G
1.4
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesSeattle MarinersBoston Red Sox
Runs / game1.21.4
Hits / game2.24.2
Home runs / game0.00.6
Walks drawn / game0.81.4
Batter K / game3.44.0
Earned runs allowed / game0.61.6
Pitching K / game3.83.2
Walks allowed / game0.20.8
L5 record3-22-3

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Seattle Mariners won 1, Boston Red Sox won 2.

DateSeattle MarinersBoston Red SoxWinner
Jun 2115Boston Red Sox
Jun 2131Seattle Mariners
Jun 2026Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Seattle Mariners
PlayerStatus
Matt Brash RPOUT
Cooper Criswell RPOUT
J.P. Crawford SSOUT
Carlos Vargas RPOUT
Cole Wilcox RPOUT
Luke Raley RFOUT
Will Wilson 3BOUT
Logan Evans SPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Adley Rutschman COUT
Masataka Yoshida DHDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1BOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Zack Kelly RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox : Seattle Mariners +3 (-256)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
21 Jun 26 Moneyline Seattle Mariners ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +2.5 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +2 ✗ MISS
21 Jun 26 Spread Seattle Mariners +1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Mariners, or as Mariners vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 June 2026 at T-Mobile Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 9 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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