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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
San Diego Padres

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 4:04AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Sat 12 Jul 2025, 11:35PM
2
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -175

The model graded 6 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $157 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 12 Jul 2025, 11:35PM at Petco Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win69.6%
The price says63.7%
Best price-175
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies High70% chance -175
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props Highup to 93%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 89%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 90%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Gavin Sheets 1BOut
  • Luis Rengifo LFOut
  • Jeremiah Estrada RPOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Robbie Ray SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Zack Wheeler PHI Pitcher - Walks
Brandon Marsh PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Zack Wheeler PHI Pitcher - Strikeouts

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4Free board16-9

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
1.2runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.8Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L51-4

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 6 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres — 2 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 6 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 5 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 1 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–7TBAway
L4–9TBAway
L0–1PITHome
W3–0PITHome
L2–3PITHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: San Diego Padres won 0, Philadelphia Phillies won 6.

DateSan Diego PadresPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jun 446Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 323Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 223Philadelphia Phillies
May 2734Philadelphia Phillies
May 2703Philadelphia Phillies
May 2503Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Gavin Sheets 1BOUT
Luis Rengifo LFOUT
Jeremiah Estrada RPOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Zack Wheeler. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Zack Wheeler (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Zack Wheeler for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Wheeler has averaged 1.2 walks overall in his last five games and his average increases to 1.8 walks when playing away. This suggests that he is more likely to give up at least one walk when playing away from home. Furthermore, his average walks allowed against the Padres is 0.7, still above the line of 0.5. His innings pitched and outs averages also indicate he typically stays in the game long enough to potentially allow a walk. Moreover, his current away hit streak stands at 5, implying a pattern of allowing hits in away games, which can correlate with walks. Therefore, these stats collectively indicate a strong likelihood of Wheeler allowing at least one walk in the upcoming game.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Padres, or as Padres vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Saturday 12 July 2025 at Petco Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 18–5 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 7.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
4 Jun 2026San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies6–4Philadelphia Phillies
3 Jun 2026San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
2 Jun 2026San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
27 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres0–3Philadelphia Phillies
26 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres3–4Philadelphia Phillies
25 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres0–3Philadelphia Phillies
13 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres1–2Philadelphia Phillies
12 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres5–4San Diego Padres
11 Jul 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres4–2San Diego Padres
2 Jul 2025San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies5–1Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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