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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 19, 1:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Wed 22 Jul 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 4.5 (Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings)
The model graded 22 markets for New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $208 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 57.2%, fair odds 1.75, book price +108, model edge +9.1%. Tip-off Wed 22 Jul 2026, 6:10PM at American Family Field.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 4.5 · $100 returned $208

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 754 of 1,520 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 17
Under 5
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $470
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings
Over
4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Milwaukee BrewersSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Abner Uribe RPOut
  • Cooper Pratt SSOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Kyle Harrison SP
Availability updated Aug 18, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jackson Chourio Batter - Total Bases
William Contreras MIL Batter - Total Bases

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2Free board10-8

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 3-2, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 3-2, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs New York MetsNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L53-2

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.2 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent results

Milwaukee Brewers have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2LADAway
L1–3LADAway
W4–1LADAway
W5–4LADAway
L2–11SDAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1SDHome
W4–3WSHHome
W5–4WSHHome
W4–1WSHHome
L3–6ATLAway

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Milwaukee Brewers are scoring 4.2 runs per game (4-1) while New York Mets are at 3.0 (2-3); Milwaukee Brewers pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 2.2 for New York Mets.

4.2
Milwaukee Brewers runs/G
3.0
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesMilwaukee BrewersNew York Mets
Runs / game4.23.0
Hits / game3.64.2
Home runs / game0.80.8
Walks drawn / game2.43.6
Batter K / game3.42.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.42.2
Pitching K / game3.44.8
Walks allowed / game1.61.2
L5 record4-12-3

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Milwaukee Brewers won 2, New York Mets won 1.

DateMilwaukee BrewersNew York MetsWinner
Jul 2243Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 2104New York Mets
Jul 2083Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Sal Frelick RFOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Abner Uribe RPOUT
Cooper Pratt SSOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers — model preview

Deep dive into Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like William Contreras. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets : Over 4.5 totals_1st_5_innings (+108)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Brewers host the Mets on July 22, the atmosphere is ripe for a high-scoring showdown. Both teams have shown a penchant for putting runs on the board lately. Milwaukee's offense has been sizzling, averaging over 5 runs in their last week of action, thanks to key hitters heating up at the right time. Meanwhile, the Mets have been no slouches themselves, with their lineup capable of exploding against any pitcher. On the mound, both starting pitchers have had moments of brilliance but also vulnerabilities that could lead to crooked numbers on the scoreboard. The Brewers' home games have often turned into slugfests, and with runs expected to flow freely, the over on 4.5 looks enticing. Given the recent trends and firepower both teams wield, it’s hard to see this game finishing below that mark. Buckle up for a game where offense reigns supreme!

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
22 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Moneyline Milwaukee Brewers ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✓ HIT
22 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -3.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -4 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Spread Milwaukee Brewers -4.5 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Brewers, or as Brewers vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 22 July 2026 at American Family Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Milwaukee Brewers 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
22 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers4–3Milwaukee Brewers
21 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers0–4New York Mets
20 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers8–3Milwaukee Brewers
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