Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 24, 8:40PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 2:10AM
20
Game Picks
16
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Mets -1.5 (Spread)
For New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB), model win probability 71.2%, fair odds 1.40, book price +390, model edge +50.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 16 Apr 2026, 2:10AM at Dodger Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Mets
+3
+ 19 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut
Availability updated Jul 24, 1:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Will Smith LAD Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyle Tucker HOU Batter - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Freddie Freeman ATL Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Shohei Ohtani LAA Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Smith LAD Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineLos Angeles DodgersNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.8L5 RA3.8Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline form: last five 4-1, 6.8 runs/gm.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF6.8L5 RA3.8Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1ATS4-6

Los Angeles Dodgers spread form: last five 4-1, 6.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York MetsNo line posted

Los Angeles Dodgers total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsLos Angeles Dodgers team totalNo line posted
4.6implied team total
L5 RF6.8L5 RA3.8Home L54-1vs New York Mets L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers team total runs form: last five 4-1, 6.8 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (4-1) while New York Mets are at 1.0 (0-5); Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for New York Mets.

2.8
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
1.0
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesLos Angeles DodgersNew York Mets
Runs / game2.81.0
Hits / game3.02.0
Home runs / game1.20.0
Walks drawn / game1.81.0
Batter K / game3.03.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.0
Pitching K / game3.03.6
Walks allowed / game1.21.8
L5 record4-10-5

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets : Over 4.5 Total Runs (-303)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

When the Dodgers host the Mets, expect a hitting spectacle. The Dodgers, with their offensive juggernaut, have been relentless, averaging just shy of 5.4 runs per game at home. Their lineup's depth, led by stars who consistently find gaps, poses a significant challenge for any pitcher. On the other side, the Mets have shown flashes of brilliance, especially when it comes to putting runs on the board. Despite some inconsistency, they’ve managed to score in bunches against right-handed pitching, which is crucial given that they face a right-hander today. With both teams trending towards high-scoring affairs—especially in head-to-head matchups—betting the Over on 4.5 seems not just favorable but almost inevitable. Given the recent form of both lineups, we could easily see a score that surpasses this modest total, making it a compelling play for those looking to ride the offensive wave in this intriguing clash.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets : Over 3.5 Total Runs (-556)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers host the Mets, all signs point to a high-scoring affair. The Dodgers have been relentless at the plate, averaging over five runs a game lately, buoyed by the sizzling bats of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who both thrive in crucial situations. On the mound, while the Mets have occasionally shown flashes of brilliance, their recent struggles have led to a few rough outings, especially against potent lineups like that of Los Angeles. With the Dodgers’ offense clicking and the Mets’ pitching staff battling inconsistency, the potential for runs to pile up is palpable. The model’s prediction substantially favors the over, reflecting the likelihood of both teams contributing to the scoreboard. Given the Dodgers' home-field advantage and their current form, betting on more than 3.5 total runs feels not only safe but almost inevitable in this matchup. Buckle up; it’s going to be an exciting night at the ballpark!

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets : Over 4 Total Runs (-476)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Dodgers host the Mets, the stage is set for a high-octane showdown that screams "over". Los Angeles has been a powerhouse at the plate, consistently scoring in bunches, especially at home where they thrive on a blend of power and patience. Meanwhile, the Mets have shown flashes of offensive prowess, particularly against left-handed pitchers, which plays right into the hands of the Dodgers’ lineup. With model predictions suggesting nearly nine runs, it’s clear the bats are primed for action. Recent trends bolster this; both teams have been trending towards the over in their recent matchups. The Dodgers' lineup, featuring sluggers who can change the game with one swing, is likely to exploit any pitching missteps. Given the current form and the offensive capabilities on both sides, taking the over on 4 runs feels not just reasonable but almost inevitable in this clash.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
5
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
16 Apr 26 Moneyline New York Mets ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Spread New York Mets +3 ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Spread New York Mets +1.5 ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Spread New York Mets +3.5 ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Spread New York Mets -1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 16 April 2026 at Dodger Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 16 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks