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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 14, 12:23AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr 2026, 2:10AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Mets -2 (Spread)
The model graded 20 markets for New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $800 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 67.0%, fair odds 1.49, book price +700, model edge +54.5%. Tip-off Thu 16 Apr 2026, 2:10AM at Dodger Stadium.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 629 of 1,212 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 13
Under 5.5
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $359
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Mets
-3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Brock Stewart RPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Roki Sasaki SP
Availability updated Aug 14, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 20 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability20 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineLos Angeles DodgersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs New York Mets L54-1Free board8-6

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs New York Mets L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers spread form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York MetsNo line posted

Los Angeles Dodgers total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsLos Angeles Dodgers team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs New York Mets L54-1

Los Angeles Dodgers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers — recent results

Los Angeles Dodgers have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4KCHome
W6–5KCHome
W2–1ARIAway
L2–4ARIAway
L3–4ARIAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–6ATLAway
L0–4ATLAway
W8–5ATLAway
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 2.8 runs per game (4-1) while New York Mets are at 1.0 (0-5); Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.0 for New York Mets.

2.8
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
1.0
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesLos Angeles DodgersNew York Mets
Runs / game2.81.0
Hits / game3.02.0
Home runs / game1.20.0
Walks drawn / game1.81.0
Batter K / game3.03.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.0
Pitching K / game3.03.6
Walks allowed / game1.21.8
L5 record4-10-5

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Los Angeles Dodgers won 2, New York Mets won 1.

DateLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsWinner
Jul 2638New York Mets
Jul 2543Los Angeles Dodgers
Jul 2442Los Angeles Dodgers

Who’s out or in doubt

20 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Tyler Glasnow SPOUT
Blake Treinen RPOUT
Will Smith COUT
Kris Bubic SPOUT
Will Klein RPOUT
Gavin Stone SPOUT
Bobby Miller SPOUT
Dalton Rushing COUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Dodgers, or as Dodgers vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Thursday 16 April 2026 at Dodger Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Los Angeles Dodgers 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets8–3New York Mets
25 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets3–4Los Angeles Dodgers
24 Jul 2026Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets2–4Los Angeles Dodgers
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