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Model picks & player props
Atlanta Braves
VS
New York Mets

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:45PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Wed 29 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline +148

The model graded 70 markets for Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $248 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 29 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win96.0%
The price says40.3%
Best price+148
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New York Mets High96% chance +148
Spread High74% chance
Spread High70% chance
Spread High67% chance
Spread High63% chance
Spread High77% chance
Spread High80% chance
Spread Lean55% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings High88% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 4 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Runs Scored × 7 props Highup to 80%
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 84%
Batter - Walks × 12 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 82%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
New York Mets · $100 returned $248

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Atlanta Braves

  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Robert Suarez RPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut

Probable pitcher

Martin Perez SP

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nolan McLean SP
Availability updated Aug 29, 8:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Marcus Semien TOR Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Runs Scored
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Ozzie Albies ATL Batter - Total Bases
Matt Olson ATH Batter - Walks

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs Atlanta Braves L51-4

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs Atlanta Braves L51-4

New York Mets spread form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Atlanta BravesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
0.2runs we expect
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs Atlanta Braves L51-4

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Atlanta Braves at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Atlanta Braves have won 5 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome
Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1COLHome
W6–4COLHome
W1–0LADHome
W6–5LADHome
W4–3LADHome

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 5.0 runs per game (2-3) while Atlanta Braves are at 4.2 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 4.4 for Atlanta Braves.

5.0
New York Mets runs/G
4.2
Atlanta Braves runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsAtlanta Braves
Runs / game5.04.2
Hits / game5.23.6
Home runs / game1.20.6
Walks drawn / game3.02.2
Batter K / game4.23.6
Earned runs allowed / game1.84.4
Pitching K / game3.84.4
Walks allowed / game1.24.6
L5 record2-33-2

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Mets won 5, Atlanta Braves won 5.

DateNew York MetsAtlanta BravesWinner
Aug 1236Atlanta Braves
Aug 1104Atlanta Braves
Aug 1085New York Mets
Jul 2932New York Mets
Jul 2901Atlanta Braves
Jul 27143New York Mets
Jul 676New York Mets
Jul 5314Atlanta Braves
Jul 5109New York Mets
Jul 335Atlanta Braves

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
Robert Suarez RPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Joey Wentz RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Alvarez. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves stats and odds.

Francisco Alvarez (NYM) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-227)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
29 Jul 26 Moneyline New York Mets ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets -0.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets 3.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets 0.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread New York Mets +1.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread New York Mets +2 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings New York Mets 1.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread New York Mets +2.5 ✓ HIT
29 Jul 26 Spread New York Mets +3 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Braves vs Mets, or as Mets vs Braves. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 29 July 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 50 meetings on record
Atlanta Braves 29–20 across the last 50 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.2 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves6–3Atlanta Braves
11 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves4–0Atlanta Braves
10 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves5–8New York Mets
29 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets3–2New York Mets
27 Jul 2026Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets14–3New York Mets
6 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves6–7New York Mets
5 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves9–10New York Mets
4 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves14–3Atlanta Braves
3 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves5–3Atlanta Braves
14 Jun 2026Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets8–1New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 50 meetings on file.

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