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Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
Chicago White Sox

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 13, 8:28AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
59.3%
Historical Hit Rate
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Houston Astros -2.5 (Spread)
The model graded 20 markets for Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $350 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 59.3% across 27 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 43.6%, fair odds 2.29, book price +250, model edge +15.0%. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 11:10PM at Guaranteed Rate Field.
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Houston Astros -2.5 · $100 returned $350

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 619 of 1,194 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 13
Under 6.5
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $343
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Houston Astros
-4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Houston AstrosSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Jose Altuve 2BDay-to-day
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryan King SP

Chicago White Sox

  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Chris Murphy RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Kyle Teel COut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Luis Castillo SP
Availability updated Aug 12, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago White SoxNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L53-2

Chicago White Sox moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago White Sox run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L53-2

Chicago White Sox spread form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago White Sox vs Houston AstrosNo line posted

Chicago White Sox total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago White Sox team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Houston Astros L53-2

Chicago White Sox team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.6 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox — recent results

Chicago White Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 3 of their last 5.

Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–0CINHome
L4–5CINHome
W5–3CLEHome
W6–3CLEHome
L2–8CLEHome
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–4SFAway
W2–1SFAway
W6–3SFAway
L2–7SDAway
W6–3SDAway

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Chicago White Sox won 1, Houston Astros won 2.

DateChicago White SoxHouston AstrosWinner
Jul 26123Chicago White Sox
Jul 2514Houston Astros
Jul 2459Houston Astros

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Chris Murphy RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Kyle Teel COUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT
Mike Vasil RPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Jose Altuve 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Chicago White Sox playing Houston Astros. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros stats and odds.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros : Houston Astros +1.5 (-196)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Chicago White Sox gear up to face the Houston Astros, it’s hard to ignore the Astros' recent dominance, particularly with their potent lineup. Houston has been on a tear lately, boasting an impressive average of over five runs per game. Their ability to capitalize on opposing pitchers has been evident, with a team OPS that consistently ranks among the league’s best. On the mound, the Astros are sending out a pitcher who has consistently kept opponents guessing, contributing to their stellar road record. Chicago, while showing flashes of brilliance, has struggled to find their rhythm against top-tier pitching, often faltering in crucial moments. Combine these factors with the fact that Houston has excelled in run differential, and it becomes clear why backing them on the run line makes sense. With the Astros looking to maintain their playoff push, expect them to deliver a decisive victory against the White Sox.

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
27
Total Picks
59.3%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Spread Houston Astros -3.5 ✗ MISS
25 Jul 26 Spread Houston Astros -2.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Houston Astros +1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Houston Astros -1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Moneyline Houston Astros ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros 0.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 6.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7.5 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 7 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Total Runs Under 8.5 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Houston Astros ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Spread Houston Astros +2.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Sox, or as Sox vs Astros. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at Guaranteed Rate Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 59.3% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Houston Astros 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox12–3Chicago White Sox
25 Jul 2026Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox1–4Houston Astros
24 Jul 2026Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox5–9Houston Astros
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