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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
Chicago White Sox

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 17, 11:56PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul 2026, 6:10PM
20
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 8 (Total Runs)
The model graded 30 markets for Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 64.2%, fair odds 1.56, book price -110, model edge +11.9%. Tip-off Thu 9 Jul 2026, 6:10PM at Guaranteed Rate Field.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Boston Red Sox · $100 returned $208

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 736 of 1,481 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 16
Under 5.5
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $354
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago White SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Jahmai Jones DHDay-to-day
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Garrett Whitlock RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Alec Gamboa SP

Chicago White Sox

  • Kyle Teel COut
  • Davis Martin SPOut
  • Drew Thorpe SPOut
  • Joey Bart COut
  • Chris Murphy RPOut
  • Jordan Leasure RPOut
  • Prelander Berroa RPOut
  • Ky Bush SPOut
  • Mike Vasil RPOut
  • Tanner Murray LFOut
  • Brooks Baldwin LFOut

Probable pitcher

Luis Castillo SP
Availability updated Aug 18, 12:05AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 25 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability25 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Ceddanne Rafaela Batter - Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Miguel Vargas CHW Batter - Total Bases
Randal Grichuk COL Batter - Total Bases
Willson Contreras STL Batter - Total Bases

+ 10 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago White SoxNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA3.0Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Chicago White Sox moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago White Sox run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.2L5 RA3.0Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Chicago White Sox spread form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

Chicago White Sox total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago White Sox team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF4.2L5 RA3.0Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

Chicago White Sox team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.2 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 30 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox — 20 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 30 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 29 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox — recent results

Chicago White Sox have won 4 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5.

Chicago White Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–5DETAway
W4–3DETAway
W9–5DETAway
L8–9CINHome
W5–0CINHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–8PITAway
W4–0PITAway
L4–8PITAway
W7–0TORAway
L4–6TORAway

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Chicago White Sox won 0, Boston Red Sox won 6.

DateChicago White SoxBoston Red SoxWinner
Aug 61112Boston Red Sox
Aug 504Boston Red Sox
Aug 4214Boston Red Sox
Jul 912Boston Red Sox
Jul 805Boston Red Sox
Jul 718Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

25 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago White Sox
PlayerStatus
Kyle Teel COUT
Davis Martin SPOUT
Drew Thorpe SPOUT
Joey Bart COUT
Chris Murphy RPOUT
Jordan Leasure RPOUT
Prelander Berroa RPOUT
Ky Bush SPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Jahmai Jones DHDAY-TO-DAY
Trevor Story SSOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Garrett Whitlock RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox — model preview

Deep dive into Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Colson Montgomery. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.

Colson Montgomery (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the White Sox face off against the Red Sox, all eyes will be on Colson Montgomery, but betting on him to go over 1.5 total bases might be a stretch. Montgomery has shown flashes of brilliance, yet he’s been struggling lately, with a batting average that has dipped below .250 in recent games. The Red Sox's pitching has tightened up, especially against left-handed hitters like Montgomery. Their starter has been effective at limiting hard contact, boasting a solid WHIP that underscores his ability to keep runs and hits in check. On top of that, the White Sox’s lineup has been inconsistent, often failing to generate enough momentum to support their young star. With a model prediction hovering around 1.11 total bases, it’s hard not to see this as a chance to fade Montgomery in a tough matchup. The under feels like the smarter play here, especially given the current form and context.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
09 Jul 26 Spread Chicago White Sox +1.5 ✓ HIT
08 Jul 26 Moneyline Boston Red Sox ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox in the MLB. The most recent game between them was Thursday 9 July 2026 at Guaranteed Rate Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
Boston Red Sox 6–0 across the last 6 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox12–11Boston Red Sox
5 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox4–0Boston Red Sox
4 Aug 2026Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox14–2Boston Red Sox
9 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox1–2Boston Red Sox
8 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox0–5Boston Red Sox
7 Jul 2026Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox1–8Boston Red Sox
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