On Friday 9 October 2026, Liverpool play Manchester City in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 1.5 Total Goals, priced at -588 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City in a tantalizing clash, the stage is set for a goal fest. Despite Liverpool's recent struggles at Anfield, averaging just 1.4 goals per game, they have managed to find the net consistently against City. Their last five encounters with City have all featured at least two goals, showcasing both teams' attacking prowess. Manchester City arrives in blistering form, netting an impressive 2.6 goals per game over their last five outings, and boasting a 5-0-0 record. Their relentless offense averages 17.4 shots per game on the road, which points to plenty of opportunities. With both teams capable of scoring, and the stakes high in this rivalry, betting on over 1.5 goals feels like a shrewd move. Goals have a way of appearing when these two giants collide, and this match promises to be no different.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: Liverpool +0.5 Goal Handicap (-185)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Liverpool prepares to host Manchester City, recent form offers a compelling narrative. Liverpool may have struggled a bit at home, with just one win in their last five, but their defensive record has been impressive, conceding just 0.8 goals per match in that span. In contrast, City's away prowess has been stellar, yet Liverpool's historical head-to-head record against them shows a competitive spirit, with two wins in their last five encounters. While City boasts an average of 2.6 goals recently, Liverpool's xG suggests they can create enough chances to edge this contest. With a home crowd behind them, and given their ability to limit opponents, betting on Liverpool to win by at least one goal in this handicap market seems wise. Expect a tense battle, but Liverpool's resilience could shine through, making them a solid play here.
That is how our model reads Liverpool v Manchester City. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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