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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 5:47AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Wrigley Field, Chicago
Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr 2026, 6:20PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 9 Total Runs +247

The model graded 20 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $347 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 11 Apr 2026, 6:20PM at Wrigley Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win74.0%
The price says28.8%
Best price+247
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9 High74% chance +247
Total Runs High70% chance
Total Runs High78% chance
Total Runs Lean57% chance
Total Runs High84% chance
Total Runs Lean53% chance
Total Runs High89% chance
Total Runs Lean44% chance
Total Runs High94% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs last met on Sat 11 Apr 2026. What follows is the model's graded record from that game; a new preview appears here the moment the next one is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 74 of 108 right (mlb batter hits overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 5
Brady House Over 0.5
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $172
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Kirby Yates RPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP

Chicago Cubs

  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Jacob Webb RPDay-to-day
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Javier Assad SP
Availability updated Sep 5, 10:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineChicago CubsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L55-0vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0Free board13-11

Chicago Cubs moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineChicago Cubs run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L55-0vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0Free board15-14

Chicago Cubs spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Chicago Cubs total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsChicago Cubs team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA1.4Home L55-0vs Pittsburgh Pirates L55-0

Chicago Cubs team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — recent results

Chicago Cubs have won 3 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–5MIAAway
W6–1MIAAway
W2–1MILHome
L5–9MILHome
L4–9MILHome
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–6LAAHome
W1–0LAAHome
W5–2SFHome
L4–5SFHome
W13–12SFHome

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.8 runs per game (3-2) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 4.2 (2-3); Chicago Cubs pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesChicago CubsPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game6.84.2
Hits / game10.610.2
Home runs / game2.21.0
Walks drawn / game2.44.2
Batter K / game9.28.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.6
Pitching K / game8.05.6
Walks allowed / game3.82.4
L5 record3-22-3

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Chicago Cubs won 5, Pittsburgh Pirates won 5.

DateChicago CubsPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 2678Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 25110Chicago Cubs
Jul 2432Chicago Cubs
May 2872Chicago Cubs
May 27104Chicago Cubs
May 26112Pittsburgh Pirates
May 2512Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 1276Chicago Cubs
Apr 1134Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 1002Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Jacob Webb RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ben Brown RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Kirby Yates RPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Chicago Cubs -1 (+102)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 3 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Cubs, or as Cubs vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Saturday 11 April 2026 at Wrigley Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 49 meetings on record
Chicago Cubs 32–17 across the last 49 meetings · these games average 9.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–7Pittsburgh Pirates
25 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–11Chicago Cubs
24 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–3Chicago Cubs
28 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–7Chicago Cubs
27 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates4–10Chicago Cubs
26 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates12–1Pittsburgh Pirates
25 May 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates
12 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs7–6Chicago Cubs
11 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
10 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs0–2Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 49 meetings on file.

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