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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harvey Thomas is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +9.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:05PM UTC
AFL

Harvey Thomas

GWS GIANTS

+9.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -169 (1.59)
+9.8% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:35AM
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Model Probability
72.7%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+9.8%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.7%—62.9%1.38+9.8%

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AI Analysis

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Harvey Thomas (GWS GIANTS) Over 16.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Harvey Thomas, the midfield maestro for Greater Western Sydney, is poised to shine on home turf against Fremantle. Over his last five home games, he's been a possession magnet, averaging a stellar 18.2 disposals per game, comfortably surpassing the 16.5 line set for him in this matchup. Thomas boasts an impressive disposal efficiency of 74.9% and has been a key playmaker, racking up 10.2 handballs and 8 kicks on average. His ability to cover the ground is evident, with an average of 244.8 meters gained per game. With a current hit streak of 4 games both at home and overall, Thomas is in prime form to dominate the contest and deliver another standout performance in front of the home crowd at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.2avg disposals recent
Season best21
Disposals last 10avg 11.2 · hi 17 · lo 3
1517917161114553

Harvey Thomas has a disposals high of 21 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -169 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 14.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Harvey Thomas (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harvey Thomas is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 4 July at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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