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The latest Bet Better model pick for Archie Perkins is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +9.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Archie Perkins

Essendon

+9.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -156 (1.64)
+9.2% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Carlton Blues
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Model Probability
70.1%
Implied Probability
61.0%
Model Edge
+9.2%
Predicted Value
17.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%—61.0%1.43+9.2%

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AI Analysis

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Archie Perkins (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Archie Perkins has been consistently exceeding 14.5 disposals in his last five games, averaging 16.6 overall and 14.4 in away games. With a model prediction of 17.2 and a 9.2% edge, Perkins is likely to continue his strong performance against Carlton Blues. His recent form, including a hit rate of 4/5 for exceeding this line, showcases his ability to maintain high possession rates. Considering his averages in contested possessions, disposals, and metres gained, Perkins is poised to contribute significantly in the upcoming game, making the Over 14.5 disposals bet a favorable choice for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
12.4avg disposals recent
Season best24
Disposals last 10avg 12.4 · hi 21 · lo 2
162116141310241315

Archie Perkins has a disposals high of 24 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Archie Perkins (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Archie Perkins is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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