Here are our AFL picks for Saturday 1 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 23.5 Disposals, priced at -143 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 23.5 Disposals (-143)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to putting your money on a player prop, Caleb Daniel is as reliable as they come. In his last five away games, Daniel has been a midfield maestro, averaging a cool 22.4 disposals, comfortably surpassing the line of 23.5. Facing off against the Hawthorn Hawks, a team he's been consistent against with a 22.8 disposals average in their last five encounters, Daniel is poised to shine. His ability to find space and move the ball efficiently, boasting an 85.7% disposal efficiency in his recent performances, makes hitting that over seem like a safe bet. With his recent form showing he's more than capable of hitting the mark, Caleb Daniel is primed to snag enough possessions to comfortably sail over 23.5 disposals in this upcoming clash.
Archie Roberts (Essendon) Over 25.5 Disposals (-154)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Archie Roberts, the midfield maestro for the Essendon Bombers, is poised to shine in the upcoming clash against the Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium. Roberts has been a force to be reckoned with, boasting an average of 29.6 disposals in his last five home games. His ability to find space and penetrate defenses is highlighted by his impressive 490.8 meters gained per game during this stretch. Facing the Crows, against whom he has averaged 19 disposals in his last five encounters, Roberts is primed to exceed the 25.5 disposal mark. With a solid hit rate and a consistent performance history, Roberts is a reliable bet to weave his magic on the field and rack up the possessions necessary to secure the over on this wager.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Daniel Rioli, the dynamic midfielder for the Gold Coast Suns, is poised to shine brightly in their clash against the Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium. Rioli's recent form at home has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 22.2 disposals over his last five games, comfortably surpassing the set line of 20.5. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident with 9.2 handballs and 13 kicks per game, showcasing his versatility on the field. With a solid contested possession average of 3.6 and a disposal efficiency of 83.2%, Rioli is not only a ball magnet but also a reliable distributor. Against Melbourne, he has historically elevated his game, exceeding the 20.5 line with averages of 18.2 disposals at home and 19.8 overall. Backed by his recent performance and consistent numbers, betting on Rioli to surpass 20.5 disposals is a smart play for this matchup.
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 14.5 Disposals (-196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Joel Jeffrey, the young gun for Gold Coast Suns, is poised to shine on his home turf at People First Stadium against the Melbourne Demons. Over his last 5 home games, Jeffrey has been a standout performer, averaging a solid 16.8 disposals per game. His recent form showcases his ability to find the footy with an average of 12.8 kicks and 4 handballs per game, exceeding the set line of 14.5 disposals. With a penchant for gaining meters (433.6 avg) and maintaining possession efficiency at 81.7%, Jeffrey is primed to deliver against Melbourne's defense. Given his strong track record at home and the matchup dynamics, backing Jeffrey to surpass 14.5 disposals is a prudent bet with a high probability of hitting.
Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Jy Simpkin's recent form on the road, his average disposals over the last five away games sits at a respectable 21.4. However, facing Hawthorn at University of Tasmania Stadium, he's historically had a tougher time, with his average disposals dropping slightly to 20.2 when playing against them away. While he's been solid overall, his numbers against this opponent suggest he might struggle to hit the Over 22.5 disposals mark. Simpkin's ability to find space and impact the game is evident, but the data hints that this matchup could see him fall just short of the line. Considering his recent performance against Hawthorn, taking the Under on Simpkin's disposals could be a smart play this Saturday.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to reliable midfield performers, Brodie Grundy stands out as a prime candidate for a solid showing in the upcoming clash against St Kilda. Over his last five away games, Grundy has been a disposal machine, averaging a healthy 19.6 possessions, comfortably exceeding the set line of 15.5. His recent form is not to be overlooked, with an impressive 63.8% disposal efficiency and a knack for generating metres gained (146.8 on average). Against St Kilda specifically, Grundy has consistently delivered, averaging 16.5 disposals in his last five encounters. With a current hit streak of seven games and a reliable track record on the road, Grundy is poised to once again step up and deliver the goods, making the Over 15.5 disposals a compelling bet to back at Marvel Stadium.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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