Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks, November 5, 2026

Matteo Berrettini faces Carlos Alcaraz at Paris Masters on Thursday 5 November 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Carlos Alcaraz wins the match. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Carlos Alcaraz is favored to win against Matteo Berrettini because he has been performing really well lately, with an 80% win rate in his last five matches. His serve stats are strong too, winning over 72% of his first serve points on hard courts. Plus, he plays well on this surface, making him a tough opponent. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz: Matteo Berrettini +4.5 Game Handicap (+100)

Matteo Berrettini has a good chance to keep the match close against Carlos Alcaraz. Playing at home usually gives players a boost, and Berrettini's strong serve could help him stay competitive throughout the match. Our numbers suggest he can cover the +4.5 game handicap, meaning he could lose by four games or less, or even win. The biggest risk here is that Alcaraz is a tough opponent and has shown he can dominate matches. If Berrettini struggles early, it might be hard for him to recover. Still, with the home crowd behind him and his skills on display, this bet has a solid shot at paying off.

That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.