Here are our EPL picks for Saturday 7 November 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Aston Villa +1.5 Corner Handicap, priced at -130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As we head into this intriguing clash, Aston Villa's form is hard to overlook. They've been on a roll, winning three of their last five, and their attacking prowess is evident, averaging nearly 1.8 goals per game recently. In contrast, Manchester United is struggling, with a meager 0.6 goals per game in their last five outings. They're not just failing to score; their defense is leaking an average of 1.6 goals per match. When these two teams met, Villa managed to take points from United, and their recent away form has been solid. With Villa's expected goals consistently showing promise, coupled with United's alarming inconsistency, a bet on Aston Villa to cover a 1.5-goal handicap feels justified. Given Villa's current momentum and United's stumbles, it's a compelling wager for Sunday's showdown.
Austin FC vs Portland Timbers: Austin FC +1 Goal Handicap (-145)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Austin FC prepares to host the Portland Timbers, the betting landscape reveals a compelling narrative. Despite a rocky recent home record of just one win in their last five, Austin has shown resilience against Portland historically, boasting a 2-1-2 record in their last five encounters. While they've struggled to find the net lately, averaging a meager 1.2 goals per game, their xG numbers suggest they're due for some positive regression, especially in front of their home crowd. Portland, while coming off three wins in five, concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game on the road, hinting at vulnerability. With Austin's attacking stats steadily improving, this matchup could tilt in their favor. Betting on Austin FC to cover a -1 handicap feels like a savvy play, banking on their resurgence and home advantage to outgun the Timbers.
1. FC Koln vs Bayer Leverkusen: 1. FC Koln +1.5 Corner Handicap (-135)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As 1. FC Koln prepares to host Bayer Leverkusen, recent form hints at a compelling handicap bet on Koln. While Leverkusen boasts a solid away record, their last five matches have shown vulnerability, conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game. Koln, on the other hand, has been resilient at home and can exploit Leverkusen's defensive frailties. With an xG of zero in their last five away games, Leverkusen's attack appears stagnant, especially against a Koln side that knows how to capitalize on mistakes. The home crowd at the RheinEnergieStadion will certainly lift Koln, whose recent performances suggest they can break through Leverkusen's shaky defense. Given the odds and the current form, backing Koln to cover a 1.5 handicap feels like a savvy move, as they aim to establish dominance on their turf. Expect goals and a Koln victory!
Celta Vigo vs Levante: Over 9.5 Total Corners (+158)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Celta Vigo prepares to host Levante, the stage is set for a corner kick bonanza. Celta has averaged nearly 11 corners at home in their last five games while also boasting a solid scoring average of 1.6 goals per match. Their dynamic attack is complemented by a hefty 14.6 fouls per game, which often leads to set pieces. On the flip side, Levante's away form tells a different story. Despite struggling to find the net, they've generated an impressive 10.8 shots per game, indicating their ability to push the play forward-albeit with less success. With both teams showing a proclivity for corners, it's hard to see this match finishing under 9.5 corners. Given the current trends, an "Over" bet on corners feels like a smart wager as both teams look to capitalize on every opportunity.
New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-110)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As the New York Red Bulls prepare to host Atlanta United, we're looking at a match that's likely to be more of a tactical battle than a goal-fest. The Red Bulls have averaged just 1.4 goals at home in their last five outings, while Atlanta's away form has seen them score a modest 1.4 as well. Both teams are struggling to convert their chances, with expected goals (xG) for both sides hovering around zero recently. Defensively, the Red Bulls have been resilient, conceding an average of only 1.8 goals at home, and Atlanta's recent away games have also featured low-scoring affairs, allowing only 0.8 goals per match. With both offenses lacking the finishing touch, betting on the under 3.5 total goals seems like a savvy move. The stats tell us that we're in for a tight contest, not a high-scoring spectacle.
Napoli vs Lazio: Lazio +1.5 Corner Handicap (-125)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Napoli prepares to host Lazio, the recent form of both sides suggests a compelling case for an alternate handicap bet on Lazio at +1.5. Napoli's home record has been shaky, with only two wins in their last five, and they've averaged just two goals scored per game lately. Meanwhile, Lazio is riding high with an impressive five straight wins, averaging 3.2 goals per match while conceding only 1. They've shown a remarkable adaptability away from home, scoring 2.8 goals and limiting opponents to just 0.6 over their last five away games. With Lazio's attacking prowess and solid defense facing a Napoli side that struggles for consistency, betting on Lazio to cover the handicap feels like a savvy move. Their ability to create chances, coupled with Napoli's recent defensive vulnerabilities, sets the stage for an enticing matchup that favors the visitors to at least keep it close, if not pull off an upset.
That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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