On Thursday 15 October 2026, Valencia play Athletic Bilbao in La Liga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 8.5 Total Corners, priced at -185 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Over 8.5 Total Corners (-185)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, the stage is set for a lively encounter, particularly in terms of corner kicks. Valencia’s recent form at home has led to an average of 15.6 shots per game, contributing to a steady stream of corners—averaging 1.8 per match. Bilbao, on the other hand, has been equally aggressive on the road, accumulating around 10 shots per game, with their own corner count averaging 1.6. Both teams tend to push forward, resulting in plenty of attacking play and, crucially, opportunities for corners. In their last five meetings, corners have frequently exceeded the 8.5 mark. Given Valencia's leaky defense, which allows an average of 2 corners for opponents, it’s reasonable to expect a flurry of corner activity, making the 'Over 8.5' bet an enticing prospect for this matchup.
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: Valencia +0.75 Goal Handicap (-213)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Valencia prepares to host Athletic Bilbao, there's a compelling case for backing the home side on a 0.75 handicap. While Valencia's recent form shows a mixed bag at home—1 win in their last five—they have historically had Bilbao's number, boasting a strong 3-0-2 record against them in their last five encounters. Despite scoring just 1 goal per game lately, they’ve been creating chances, averaging nearly 12 shots per match. On the flip side, Athletic has struggled away, conceding an average of 2 goals and producing a mere 1.6 goals themselves. With Valencia's defense tightening up and their home advantage, this match sets up well for them to edge out Bilbao. Expect Valencia to not only win but potentially cover the handicap, making this a tantalizing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on recent trends.
That is how our model reads Valencia v Athletic Bilbao. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.