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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nathan Collins is Yes on To Receive a Red Card.
On To Receive a Red Card, our numbers say this bet wins about 4 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 4%, implied 2%, edge +1.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Aug 17, 2:48PM UTC
Soccer

Nathan Collins

Wolverhampton Wanderers

+1.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
To Receive a Red Card Yes +5000 (51.00) · $100→$5,100
+1.6% Edge
Brentford @ Wolverhampton Wanderers
Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands · Outdoor
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
4 in 100
Predicted
0.0 To Receive a Red Card
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 3.5% · the book's price implies 2.0% · gap +1.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
To Receive a Red Card3.5%2.0%28.45+1.6%

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AI Analysis

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Nathan Collins (Brentford) Yes To Receive Red Card (+5000)

Odds available at betrivers at time of publishing

The bet on Nathan Collins to receive a red card is driven by his recent foul history. In his last five games, Collins has committed an average of 1.2 fouls overall and 1.4 in away games, indicating a slightly higher tendency to commit fouls when playing away. Although his red card average is currently at zero, the fact that he consistently commits fouls suggests there is a potential for a red card, especially in a high-pressure game. The model prediction and implied probability, while low, also indicate that there is a chance of this outcome occurring. Therefore, the bet is based on a calculated risk that Collins' foul behavior could lead to a red card.

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Pick History & Track Record

Nathan Collins — 2024 season

Nathan Collins scored 0 goals with 1 assist in 5 Premier League appearances for Brentford in the 2024 season, from 2 shots (0 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.2.

0
Goals
1
Assists
0.2
xG
2
Shots
0
On target
1
Key passes
5
Apps
370
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nathan Collins (Wolverhampton Wanderers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nathan Collins is Yes on To Receive a Red Card. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brentford vs Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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