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NFL

Tyquan Thornton

KC

Value call

Tyquan Thornton has one live pick today: over 4.5 receiving yards that pays $123 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
86 in 100
Predicted
27.6 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 86.3% · before adjusting for past results 90.8% · the book's price implies 81.3% · gap +5.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 4:25 PM ET
Tyquan Thornton
over 4.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 4.5 -435 (1.23) · $100→$123
Value call
HIGHWins about 86 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.30 Odds-435
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyquan Thornton is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On Receiving Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 86 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 86%, the price says 81%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:28PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$20,973 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)90.8%86.3%81.3%1.23+9.5%

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AI Analysis

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Tyquan Thornton (KC) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-435)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tyquan Thornton (KC) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate. It was priced at -435 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards39 lines trackedNo line posted
4.5typical line · receiving yds
line range4.5–20.5model over86%tips tracked39

Tyquan Thornton's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 39 times, typically around a 4.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions36 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–4.5model over49%tips tracked36

Tyquan Thornton's NFL receptions prop has been priced 36 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
16%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Tyquan Thornton's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 16%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many receiving yards does Tyquan Thornton average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receptions (Alt) 3.5 Over +920 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receptions (Alt) 2.5 Over +330 ✓ HIT
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receptions (Alt) — — — Pending
04 Oct 26 Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Receiving Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tyquan Thornton (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tyquan Thornton is Over 4.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.5% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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