Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyquan Thornton is Over 4.5 on Receptions (Alt).
On Receptions (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 4 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 4%, the price says 5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 4, 11:47AM UTC
NFL
Tyquan Thornton
KC
Tyquan Thornton has one live pick today: Receptions (Alt) Over 4.5 that pays $2,020 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Receptions (Alt)
Over 4.5
+1920 (20.20) · $100→$2,020
Value call
Kansas City Chiefs
@
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 8:25PM
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Thornton caught both of his targets for 22 yards in Kansas City's 24-10 win over the Dolphins on Sunday.
updated Sep 30, 2:17AM UTC · 4d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
4 in 100
Predicted
1.8 Receptions (Alt)
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 4.4% · before adjusting for past results 7.3% · the book's price implies 5.0% · gap -0.5%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Receptions (Alt) | 7.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 20.20 | +2.4% |
Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?
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Tyquan Thornton (KC) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate (+1920)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Las Vegas Raiders play Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Tyquan Thornton (KC) Over 4.5 Player receptions alternate. It was priced at +1920 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $202 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Tyquan Thornton's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Receptions (Alt) 4.5
+110 best over price · 12 books
Tyquan Thornton's receptions (alt) line is 4.5, best over price +110 across 12 books.
Receptions (Alt) 3.5
+110 best over price · 12 books
Tyquan Thornton's receptions (alt) line is 3.5, best over price +110 across 12 books.
Receptions (Alt) 2.5
+110 best over price · 12 books
Tyquan Thornton's receptions (alt) line is 2.5, best over price +110 across 12 books.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 14.5
Tyquan Thornton's receiving yards (alt) line is 14.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 9.5
Tyquan Thornton's receiving yards (alt) line is 9.5.
Receiving Yards (Alt) 4.5
Tyquan Thornton's receiving yards (alt) line is 4.5.
Betting angles
2 markets liveReceiving YardsNext game · Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas RaidersO 4.5 -435 4.5posted line · receiving yds
Tyquan Thornton has a live NFL receiving yards market for Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: over 4.5 receiving yds priced at -435.
ReceptionsNext game · Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas RaidersO 2.5 +310 2.5posted line · receptions
Tyquan Thornton has a live NFL receptions market for Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: over 2.5 receptions priced at +310.
Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
16%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1
Tyquan Thornton's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 16%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards |
20.5 |
Under |
-120 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards |
17.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receiving Yards |
19.5 |
Under |
-114 |
✓ HIT |
| 21 Sep 26 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receptions |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
| 15 Sep 26 |
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs |
Receptions (Alt) |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Tyquan Thornton (KC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tyquan Thornton is Over 4.5 on Receptions (Alt). The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October at Las Vegas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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