Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jalon Daniels is Under 0.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 53%, the price says 42%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 1, 8:47PM UTC
NFL
Jalon Daniels
TB
Jalon Daniels has one live pick today: Passing Touchdowns Under 0.5 that pays $236 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Passing Touchdowns
Under 0.5
+136 (2.36) · $100→$236
Value call
Green Bay Packers
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: 226 of 421 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Head coach Todd Bowles said Monday that Daniels will step in as the Buccaneers' new starting quarterback while Baker Mayfield is out for a "minimum of three weeks" due to a dislocated right thumb, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
updated Sep 28, 4:55PM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
53 in 100
Predicted
0.6 Passing Touchdowns
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 52.7% · the book's price implies 42.4% · gap +10.4%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 52.7% | — | 42.4% | 2.53 | +10.4% |
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Jalon Daniels (TB) Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+136)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Tampa Bay Buccaneers play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 4 October 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jalon Daniels (TB) Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at +136 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Jalon Daniels's lines for Sun 4 Oct
Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.
Passing Touchdowns 0.5
Jalon Daniels's passing touchdowns line is 0.5.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jalon Daniels (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jalon Daniels is Under 0.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.4% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday 4 October at Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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