Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Calvin Austin III is Under 13.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 56%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
NFL

Calvin Austin III

PIT

+3.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 13.5 -112 (1.89)
+3.1% Edge
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
56.0%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+3.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards56.0%—52.9%1.79+3.1%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Calvin Austin III (PIT) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Analyzing Calvin Austin III's recent performance and trends, it's statistically reasonable to bet Under 13.5 on 'player_reception_yds'. Austin III's average in his last five games appears to be lower than the proposed 13.5 yards, which indicates a trend of not meeting this mark. Moreover, the Steelers have been strong defensively against the pass, reducing the opportunities for receivers to rack up significant yards. The model edge, a measure of the expected value of this bet, is positive at 0.031, suggesting that there's a higher probability of this outcome. Furthermore, the Dolphins' passing offense has not been particularly potent, which further reduces Austin III's chances of exceeding 13.5 reception yards. Therefore, statistically, betting Under 13.5 yards for Austin III seems to be a solid choice.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards1 line trackedNo line posted
13.5typical line · receiving yds
tips tracked1

Calvin Austin III's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 13.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions1 line trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
tips tracked1

Calvin Austin III's NFL receptions prop has been priced 1 time, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Calvin Austin III (PIT) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Calvin Austin III is Under 13.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers at Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks