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NCAAF

TK Keyes

Troy

Value call

TK Keyes has one live pick today: over 3.5 receptions that pays $198 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
66 in 100
Predicted
6.9 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 66.1% · before adjusting for past results 98.1% · the book's price implies 50.5% · gap +15.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans
Tue 6 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
TK Keyes
over 3.5 receptions
Receptions Over 3.5 -102 (1.98) · $100→$198
Value call
HIGHWins about 66 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.80 Odds-102
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for TK Keyes is Over 3.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 66%, the price says 51%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:23PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf totals overs: 945 of 1,745 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions98.1%66.1%50.5%2.12+50.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/3
Last 10 games3/3

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AI Analysis

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Troy Trojans vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: TK Keyes Over 3.5 Receptions (-102)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Wednesday 7 October 2026, Troy Trojans host Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles in college football. The bet we are looking at is TK Keyes Over 3.5 Receptions. This wins if TK Keyes finishes with more than 3.5 receptions. It was priced at -102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.80 if it lands. That price was showing at FanDuel. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Troy Trojans @ Missouri Tigers Receiving Yards 32.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
06 Oct 26 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans Receptions — — — Pending
06 Oct 26 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans Receiving Yards — — — Pending
06 Oct 26 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans Receiving Yards — — — Pending
06 Oct 26 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans Receiving Yards — — — Pending
06 Oct 26 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Troy Trojans Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

TK Keyes (Troy) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for TK Keyes is Over 3.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +50.3% on this pick. Their next game is Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Troy Trojans on Tuesday 6 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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