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NCAAF

Chris Dawn Jr.

Texas State

Value call

Chris Dawn Jr. (Texas State) has one live pick today: over 4.5 receptions that pays $181 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
7.5 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.7% · before adjusting for past results 96.7% · the book's price implies 55.2% · gap +4.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Colorado State Rams @ Texas State Bobcats
Thu 15 Oct, 8:00 PM ET
Chris Dawn Jr.
over 4.5 receptions
Receptions Over 4.5 -123 (1.81) · $100→$181
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.13 Odds-123
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Chris Dawn Jr. is Over 4.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:35AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf player rush yds unders: 253 of 439 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions96.7%59.7%55.2%1.92+44.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Texas State Bobcats vs Colorado State Rams: Chris Dawn Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions (-123)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Friday 16 October 2026, Texas State Bobcats host Colorado State Rams in college football. The bet we are looking at is Chris Dawn Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions. This wins if Chris Dawn Jr. finishes with more than 4.5 receptions. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.13 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Chris Dawn Jr.'s lines for Fri 16 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receptions 4.5
-110 best over price · 3 booksWent over in 7 of the last 10 games

Chris Dawn Jr.'s receptions line is 4.5, best over price -110 across 3 books. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Receiving Yards 56.5
-114 best over price · 2 booksWent over in 7 of the last 10 games

Chris Dawn Jr.'s receiving yards line is 56.5, best over price -114 across 2 books. He has gone over it in 7 of his last 10 games.

Receiving Yards 68.5

Chris Dawn Jr.'s receiving yards line is 68.5.

Receiving Yards 64.5

Chris Dawn Jr.'s receiving yards line is 64.5.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Chris Dawn Jr. (Texas State) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Chris Dawn Jr. is Over 4.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +44.7% on this pick. Their next game is Colorado State Rams vs Texas State Bobcats on Thursday 15 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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