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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyler Herro is Over 14.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +37.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:31PM UTC
NBA

Tyler Herro

Miami Heat

+37.9% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 14.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+37.9% Edge
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.6%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+37.9%
Predicted Value
22.9 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points92.6%54.6%1.08+37.9%

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AI Analysis

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Tyler Herro (Miami Heat) Over 14.5 Points (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Miami Heat head to Toronto, all eyes should be on Tyler Herro. The young shooting guard has been nothing short of spectacular lately, averaging just over 21 points in his last five games. When it comes to facing off against the Raptors, Herro's numbers soar even higher, with an impressive 24.4 points per game average against them recently, and a staggering 25.2 points when playing in away games. His current form is hard to ignore; he's hit the over on 14.5 points in three straight contests and has a jaw-dropping hit rate of 18 out of his last 20 away games. With an expected stat value of nearly 23 points, it feels like a no-brainer to back Herro to clear this line. Given the stakes and his recent performances, he's primed for a big night in Toronto.

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Pick History & Track Record

Tyler Herro — 2024-25 season averages

Over 84 games in the 2024-25 season, Tyler Herro averaged 23.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 35.2 minutes per game, shooting 47.3% from the field and 37.5% from three-point range.

23.6
PPG
5.1
RPG
5.3
APG
0.9
SPG
0.2
BPG
35.2
MPG
47.3%
FG%
37.5%
3P%

Tyler Herro — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Tyler Herro has played 37.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

37.8
MPG (L5)
20.2
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Tyler Herro — points hit rate

Tyler Herro has scored over 15.5 points in 52% of 206 career games.

o11.572%
o12.567%
o15.552%
o20.530%
o25.515%

Tyler Herro — home vs away scoring

At home Tyler Herro averages 22.5 points per game; on the road, 24.6. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

22.5
PPG at home
24.6
PPG on the road

Tyler Herro — scoring by opponent

Tyler Herro scores most against the DET, averaging 25.3 points per game in that matchup.

25.3
DET
23.3
HOU
21.7
SAC
21.6
LAC
21.5
CHA
20.5
NY

Tyler Herro — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Tyler Herro has averaged 24.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
28 Aprvs CLE31411
26 Aprvs CLE371343
23 Apr@ CLE403365
20 Apr@ CLE372132
18 Apr@ ATL443087
16 Apr@ CHI373854
11 Apr@ NO222244
9 Apr@ CHI363044
7 Aprvs PHI332052
3 Aprvs MEM373594
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Feb 26 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Rebounds 3.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tyler Herro (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Tyler Herro is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Tyler Herro is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +37.9% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors on Thursday 9 April at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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