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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyler Herro is Over 14.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +37.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
NBA

Tyler Herro

Miami Heat

+37.9% Edge
🔥 3 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 14.5 -120 (1.83)
+37.9% Edge
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON · Indoor
Thu 9 Apr, 11:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.6%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+37.9%
Predicted Value
22.9 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points92.6%—54.6%1.08+37.9%

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AI Analysis

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Tyler Herro (Miami Heat) Over 14.5 Points (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Miami Heat head to Toronto, all eyes should be on Tyler Herro. The young shooting guard has been nothing short of spectacular lately, averaging just over 21 points in his last five games. When it comes to facing off against the Raptors, Herro's numbers soar even higher, with an impressive 24.4 points per game average against them recently, and a staggering 25.2 points when playing in away games. His current form is hard to ignore; he's hit the over on 14.5 points in three straight contests and has a jaw-dropping hit rate of 18 out of his last 20 away games. With an expected stat value of nearly 23 points, it feels like a no-brainer to back Herro to clear this line. Given the stakes and his recent performances, he's primed for a big night in Toronto.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
2.7avg · last 10
L52.8Szn3.2Home3.0Away3.4Best10
1+94%
2+85%
3+63%
4+40%
5+17%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.7 · hi 5 · lo 1
4222353411

Tyler Herro is averaging 2.7 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 3.2, best 10). He clears 3+ in 63% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
3.6avg · last 10
L53.6Szn5.3Home5.3Away5.4Best14
1+100%
3+89%
5+58%
7+33%
9+12%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 3.6 · hi 7 · lo 1
4244472531

Tyler Herro is averaging 3.6 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.3, best 14). He clears 5+ in 58% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
24.6avg · last 10
L520.2Szn23.6Home22.5Away24.6Best41
14+92%
19+75%
24+46%
29+29%
34+11%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 24.6 · hi 38 · lo 4
3520302238302133134

Tyler Herro is averaging 24.6 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 23.6, best 41). He clears 24+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
28.2avg · last 10
L523.8Szn29.0Home27.7Away30.0Best51
19+89%
24+71%
29+51%
34+35%
39+12%
Game log vs O 28.5avg 28.2 · hi 42 · lo 5
3922342642372338165

Tyler Herro is averaging 28.2 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.0, best 51). He clears 29+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
29.5avg · last 10
L524.6Szn28.7Home27.6Away29.7Best48
19+90%
24+74%
29+49%
34+27%
39+13%
Game log vs O 28.5avg 29.5 · hi 44 · lo 5
4425342643382439175

Tyler Herro is averaging 29.5 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.7, best 48). He clears 29+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
33.1avg · last 10
L528.2Szn34.0Home32.8Away35.0Best58
24+87%
29+70%
34+52%
39+31%
44+18%
Game log vs O 33.5avg 33.1 · hi 48 · lo 6
4827383047452644206

Tyler Herro is averaging 33.1 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 34.0, best 58). He clears 34+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
4.9avg · last 10
L54.4Szn5.1Home5.1Away5.0Best15
1+99%
3+92%
5+56%
7+23%
9+6%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 4.9 · hi 9 · lo 1
9544583641

Tyler Herro is averaging 4.9 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.1, best 15). He clears 5+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Points 14.5 Over -120 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Assists 5.5 Under +110 ✓ HIT
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers 3-Pointers 3.5 Under +172 ✓ HIT
27 Mar 26 Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
27 Feb 26 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Rebounds — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tyler Herro (Miami Heat) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Tyler Herro is currently on a 3-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Tyler Herro is Over 14.5 on Points. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +37.9% on this pick. Their next game is Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors on Thursday 9 April at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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