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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Eflin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 97 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 97%, implied 78%, edge +18.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 2.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 3.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 30, 8:40PM UTC
MLB

Zach Eflin

BAL

+18.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+18.4% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 29 Jul, 4:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 935 of 1,976 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 114d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
97 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 96.5% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +18.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts96.5%—78.1%1.04+18.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Zach Eflin (BAL) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-357)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Zach Eflin's performance data supports the bet for over 2.5 strikeouts. His last five overall games show an average of 2.8 strikeouts and 5.6 innings pitched, indicating he typically surpasses the 2.5 strikeout line. This trend is even more pronounced in home games, where Eflin's strikeout average jumps to 5.8. Furthermore, when facing the Toronto Blue Jays, his strikeout average remains high at 4.2. Despite the current hit streak being at 0, Eflin's consistent performance in striking out more than 2.5 players, especially at home, makes this a strong bet. His averages across the board exceed the line set for this bet, suggesting a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Zach Eflin is averaging 4.8 hits, 0.8 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.8
Hits
0.8
HR
0.0
RBI
2.2
Runs
1.4
Walks
2.8
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: H

Zach Eflin has gone over 3.5 H in 90% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o3.590%
o4.550%
o5.530%
o6.520%
o7.520%
o8.50%
o9.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Zach Eflin is averaging 4.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 7.4 in home games, including his recent form against TOR.

4.8
Hits · Overall
7.4
Hits · Home
6.6
Hits · vs TOR
0.8
HR · Overall
1.2
HR · Home
1.2
HR · vs TOR
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Zach Eflin (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Eflin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.4% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 29 July at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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