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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Eflin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 97%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +18.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Zach Eflin

BAL

+18.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 2.5 -357 (1.28)
+18.4% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 29 Jul, 4:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
96.5%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+18.4%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts96.5%—78.1%1.04+18.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Zach Eflin (BAL) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-357)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Zach Eflin's performance data supports the bet for over 2.5 strikeouts. His last five overall games show an average of 2.8 strikeouts and 5.6 innings pitched, indicating he typically surpasses the 2.5 strikeout line. This trend is even more pronounced in home games, where Eflin's strikeout average jumps to 5.8. Furthermore, when facing the Toronto Blue Jays, his strikeout average remains high at 4.2. Despite the current hit streak being at 0, Eflin's consistent performance in striking out more than 2.5 players, especially at home, makes this a strong bet. His averages across the board exceed the line set for this bet, suggesting a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2085%
O 2.570%
O 3.560%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.530%

Zach Eflin MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak2L2095%
O 3.590%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
O 7.520%

Zach Eflin MLB hits allowed: cleared over 3.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2070%
O 0.570%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Zach Eflin MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2.2avg earned runs · L5

Zach Eflin MLB earned runs: averaging 2.2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
17.2avg outs · L5
Streak2L2065%
O 16.570%
O 17.580%

Zach Eflin MLB outs: cleared over 16.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Zach Eflin (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Eflin is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.4% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 29 July at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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