Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Trevor Rogers is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On Pitcher - Earned Runs, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100. For the numbers: calibrated probability 55%, implied 60%, edge -2.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 2.50 Hlanded 7 of the last 10
Over 2.50 SOlanded 6 of the last 10
Over 1.50 BBlanded 5 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 22, 2:07AM UTC
MLB

Trevor Rogers

MLB

-2.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 2.5 -149 (1.67) · $100→$167
-2.8% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Fri 21 Aug, 11:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 840 of 1,690 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs TB @ BAL
updated Aug 21, 11:15PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
57 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 57.1% · the book's price implies 59.9% · gap -2.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs57.1%55.0%59.9%1.77-2.8%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games3/5

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-149)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Baltimore Orioles play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-149). That is a Earned Runs bet. It was priced at -149 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.71 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Trevor Rogers has gone over 2.5 SO in 60% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o2.560%
o3.530%
o4.510%
o5.510%
o6.50%
o7.50%
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Aug 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher - Earned Runs 2.5 Under -145 ✗ MISS
17 Aug 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher - Walks 1.5 Under -139 ✓ HIT
17 Aug 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher - Hits Allowed 5.5 Under -130 ✗ MISS
16 Aug 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher - Earned Runs Pending
16 Aug 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher - Strikeouts Pending
16 Aug 26 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher - Hits Allowed Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Trevor Rogers is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trevor Rogers is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a slight edge of -2.8% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles on Friday 21 August at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.