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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryne Nelson is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On Pitcher - Walks, our numbers say this bet wins about 87 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 87%, implied 67%, edge +19.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 1.50 Hlanded 7 of the last 10
Over 2.50 SOlanded 6 of the last 10
Over 1.50 ERlanded 6 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 31, 1:53AM UTC
MLB

Ryne Nelson

ARI

+19.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Under 1.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+19.9% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario · Indoor
Thu 19 Jun, 7:07PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 935 of 1,976 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Nelson (elbow) threw 25 pitches in the bullpen Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
updated Aug 22, 1:10PM UTC · 8d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
87 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.0% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +19.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks87.0%67.1%1.15+19.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryne Nelson (ARI) Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ryne Nelson's recent performance data supports the Under 1.5 bet in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market. Over his last five games, Nelson's overall average walks allowed is significantly low at 0.4, and even lower when playing away at 0. Furthermore, his record against the Blue Jays is impeccable, with zero walks allowed. His innings pitched (IP) averages and outs averages are high, indicating he spends a considerable amount of time on the mound without giving away walks. This is further reinforced by his current hit streaks, which show a consistent performance. This combination of low walk averages and high IP and outs averages, along with his performance against the opponent and on the road, suggest a strong likelihood that Nelson will allow fewer than 1.5 walks in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Ryne Nelson is averaging 2.6 hits, 0.2 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

2.6
Hits
0.2
HR
0.0
RBI
2.0
Runs
0.4
Walks
2.4
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: SO

Ryne Nelson has gone over 6.5 SO in 20% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o6.520%
o7.510%
o8.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Ryne Nelson is averaging 2.6 hits per game over his last 5 and 3.2 in home games.

2.6
Hits · Overall
3.2
Hits · Home
0.2
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Home
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryne Nelson (ARI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryne Nelson is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday 19 June at Rogers Centre, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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