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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryne Nelson is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +19.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
MLB

Ryne Nelson

ARI

+19.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Under 1.5 -204 (1.49)
+19.9% Edge
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario · Indoor
Thu 19 Jun, 7:07PM
OUT
Nelson (elbow) will begin a throwing program Saturday or Sunday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.
updated Jul 18, 6:32PM UTC · 2d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.0%
Implied Probability
67.1%
Model Edge
+19.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks87.0%—67.1%1.15+19.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryne Nelson (ARI) Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ryne Nelson's recent performance data supports the Under 1.5 bet in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market. Over his last five games, Nelson's overall average walks allowed is significantly low at 0.4, and even lower when playing away at 0. Furthermore, his record against the Blue Jays is impeccable, with zero walks allowed. His innings pitched (IP) averages and outs averages are high, indicating he spends a considerable amount of time on the mound without giving away walks. This is further reinforced by his current hit streaks, which show a consistent performance. This combination of low walk averages and high IP and outs averages, along with his performance against the opponent and on the road, suggest a strong likelihood that Nelson will allow fewer than 1.5 walks in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 6.520%
O 7.510%
O 8.510%

Ryne Nelson MLB strikeoutsseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2075%
O 2.560%
O 3.560%
O 4.550%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%
O 7.510%

Ryne Nelson MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

Ryne Nelson MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
2avg earned runs · L5

Ryne Nelson MLB earned runs: averaging 2 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
6.4avg outs · L5

Ryne Nelson MLB outs: averaging 6.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryne Nelson (ARI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryne Nelson is Under 1.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday 19 June at Rogers Centre, Toronto. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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