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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Mountcastle is Under 2.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On Batter - Total Bases, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 68%, edge +7.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 2.50 1Blanded 10 of the last 10
Under 2.50 2Blanded 10 of the last 10
Under 2.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Aug 31, 10:11PM UTC
MLB

Ryan Mountcastle

BAL

+7.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 2.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+7.7% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Wed 3 Sep, 8:10PM
OUT
The Orioles announced that Mountcastle (foot) suffered a "significant" oblique strain while warming up for his first rehab game and will now be out a couple more months, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
updated Jul 31, 8:19PM UTC · 31d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.7% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +7.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.7%—68.0%1.32+7.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) Under 2.5 Total Bases (-213)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ryan Mountcastle for Under 2.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is chosen based on his recent performance data. His last five games show a low overall batting average of 0.4, with a slightly higher away average of 0.6. However, his extra base hits averages are significantly lower, with no triples and no home runs in the last five overall and away games. Even against the Padres, his doubles and triples averages remain at zero. While he has a current hit streak, the lack of extra base hits reduces the likelihood of him achieving over 2.5 total bases. This is further supported by his lack of home runs, which would significantly contribute to total bases. Therefore, the under 2.5 bet is a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Ryan Mountcastle is averaging 0.4 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.4
Hits
0.0
HR
0.0
RBI
0.4
Runs
0.2
Walks
1.0
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Ryan Mountcastle has gone over 1.5 total bases in 30% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.530%
o2.510%
o3.510%
o4.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Ryan Mountcastle is averaging 0.4 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.6 in away games, including his recent form against NYY.

0.4
Hits · Overall
0.6
Hits · Away
1.0
Hits · vs NYY
0.0
HR · Overall
0.0
HR · Away
0.0
HR · vs NYY
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Mountcastle is Under 2.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres on Wednesday 3 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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