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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Mountcastle is Under 2.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +7.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Ryan Mountcastle

BAL

+7.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 2.5 -213 (1.47)
+7.7% Edge
Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Wed 3 Sep, 8:10PM
OUT
Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
updated Jun 13, 8:45PM UTC · 37d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.7%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+7.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases75.7%—68.0%1.32+7.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) Under 2.5 Total Bases (-213)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ryan Mountcastle for Under 2.5 in the Batter Total Bases market is chosen based on his recent performance data. His last five games show a low overall batting average of 0.4, with a slightly higher away average of 0.6. However, his extra base hits averages are significantly lower, with no triples and no home runs in the last five overall and away games. Even against the Padres, his doubles and triples averages remain at zero. While he has a current hit streak, the lack of extra base hits reduces the likelihood of him achieving over 2.5 total bases. This is further supported by his lack of home runs, which would significantly contribute to total bases. Therefore, the under 2.5 bet is a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg hits · L5
L2055%
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Ryan Mountcastle MLB hits: averaging 0.4 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.6avg total bases · L5
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Ryan Mountcastle MLB total bases: averaging 0.6 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg H+R+RBI · L5

Ryan Mountcastle MLB hits + runs + rbis: averaging 0.8 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg singles · L5
L2055%

Ryan Mountcastle MLB singles: averaging 0.2 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - DoublesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg doubles · L5

Ryan Mountcastle MLB doubles: averaging 0.2 doubles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5

Ryan Mountcastle MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Mountcastle is Under 2.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.7% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres on Wednesday 3 September at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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