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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oswald Peraza is Under 1.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 100%, versus the book's implied 95%, for a model edge of +4.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Oswald Peraza

MLB

+4.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 1.5 -2000 (1.05)
+4.8% Edge
Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Thu 16 Apr, 5:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
100.0%
Implied Probability
95.2%
Model Edge
+4.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases100.0%—95.2%—+4.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Oswald Peraza (NA) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-2000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Yankees face off against the Angels, all eyes will be on Oswald Peraza, especially when it comes to his speed on the base paths. However, I’m leaning towards the 'Under 1.5' for his stolen bases tonight. While Peraza has shown flashes of brilliance, the Yankees' game strategy often leans towards more conservative base running, particularly against the Angels’ strong defensive arm in center field, Mike Trout. Moreover, the Yankees have averaged just over one stolen base per game this season, with Peraza averaging less than half that. He’s also been held in check on the base paths lately, which aligns with the Angels' tendency to limit opposing players’ attempts. Given the high stakes of this matchup and the pitchers involved—who excel at holding runners—Peraza may find it tough to take that extra base tonight. All signs point to a cautious approach, making the 'Under 1.5' a smart bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.517%

Oswald Peraza MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.517%
O 2.517%

Oswald Peraza MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
67%hit L10
O 0.567%
O 1.533%

Oswald Peraza MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 67% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.533%

Oswald Peraza MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%

Oswald Peraza MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10

Oswald Peraza MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Oswald Peraza is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oswald Peraza is Under 1.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.8% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees on Thursday 16 April at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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