Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kyle Bradish is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On Pitcher - Hits Allowed, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 71%, implied 60%, edge +26.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 16, 7:08PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Under 5.5
-147 (1.68) · $100→$168
+26.3% Edge
Baltimore Orioles
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Sun 16 Aug, 4:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 693 of 1,394 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
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How often this wins
86 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 85.8% · the book's price implies 59.5% · gap +26.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Hits Allowed | 85.8% | 70.7% | 59.5% | 1.79 | +26.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/5 |
| Last 10 games | 0/10 |
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Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-147)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Tampa Bay Rays play Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Kyle Bradish Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-147). That is a Hits Allowed bet. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Hit-rate ladder: SO
Kyle Bradish has gone over 1.5 SO in 50% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.
o1.550%
o2.530%
o3.510%
o4.510%
o5.510%
o6.50%
o7.50%
o8.50%
Kyle Bradish is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kyle Bradish is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +26.3% on this pick. Their next game is Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday 16 August at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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