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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kris Bubic is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +9.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
MLB

Kris Bubic

KCR

+9.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -556 (1.18)
+9.6% Edge
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Tue 24 Jun, 11:40PM
OUT
Bubic (elbow/shoulder) could begin a new throwing program next week, per MLB.com.
updated Jul 18, 7:00AM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.4%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+9.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks94.4%—84.7%1.06+9.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Kris Bubic (KCR) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kris Bubic to allow over 0.5 walks in the Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays game is backed by clear statistical trends. Bubic's recent performance shows a propensity to allow walks, with an average of 1.8 walks in his last five overall games and even higher when facing the Rays specifically, at 2.5 walks. Even though his home average is lower at 0.4 walks, the trend against the Rays suggests a higher likelihood of walks. Moreover, his innings pitched (IP) averages indicate that he spends considerable time on the mound, providing more opportunities for walks to occur. The current hit streak at home also increases the chances of Bubic allowing walks. Therefore, the bet is a reasonable choice given Bubic's recent performance and specific trends against the Rays.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak5
O 2.560%
O 3.550%
O 4.550%
O 5.540%
O 6.510%
O 7.520%

Kris Bubic MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.530%
O 3.540%
O 4.520%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%

Kris Bubic MLB hits allowedseason and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%

Kris Bubic MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg earned runs · L5

Kris Bubic MLB earned runs: averaging 1 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
18.6avg outs · L5

Kris Bubic MLB outs: averaging 18.6 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Kris Bubic (KCR) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kris Bubic is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.6% on this pick. Their next game is Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals on Tuesday 24 June at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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