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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jameson Taillon is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 49%, for a model edge of +23.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:05PM UTC
MLB

Jameson Taillon

CHC

+23.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 +104 (2.04)
+23.8% Edge
Chicago Cubs @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Mon 6 Apr, 8:10PM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs DET @ CHC
updated Jul 21, 12:05AM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.9%
Implied Probability
49.0%
Model Edge
+23.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts72.9%—49.0%1.37+23.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jameson Taillon (CHC) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+104)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Chicago Cubs, all eyes will be on Jameson Taillon, but betting on the under for his strikeouts at 3.5 might just be the savvy play. Taillon’s recent outings have been a mixed bag, but he’s struggled against a disciplined Rays lineup that rarely swings and misses. Tampa's offense has been proficient at making contact, leading to a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Additionally, Taillon’s strikeout numbers are trending downward, and he’s averaged just over two strikeouts in his last few starts. With the Rays’ ability to force pitchers to work deep into counts, Taillon may find it tough to reach that 4-strikeout threshold. Given these dynamics, taking the under seems like a smart bet, especially when you consider the favorable matchup for the Tampa Bay hitters.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
Streak4L2090%
O 2.580%
O 3.570%
O 4.550%
O 5.550%

Jameson Taillon MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak95L20100%
O 0.5100%
O 1.5100%
O 2.590%
O 3.570%
O 4.540%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%

Jameson Taillon MLB hits allowed: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak4L2070%
O 0.590%
O 1.540%

Jameson Taillon MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
2.8avg earned runs · L5
Streak5L2085%

Jameson Taillon MLB earned runs: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 2.8 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
16avg outs · L5
Streak42L20100%

Jameson Taillon MLB outs: cleared over 10.5 in 100% of the last 10 games; averaging 16 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jameson Taillon (CHC) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jameson Taillon is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +23.8% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays on Monday 6 April at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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