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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Harrison Bader is Under 1.5 on Batter - Doubles.
On the Batter - Doubles market the model assigns a model win probability of 99%, versus the book's implied 94%, for a model edge of +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 5:27PM UTC
MLB

Harrison Bader

MIN

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Doubles Under 1.5 -1667 (1.06) · $100→$106
+5.6% Edge
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Sun 21 Sep, 12:10AM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
99.0%
Implied Probability
94.3%
Model Edge
+5.6%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Doubles99.0%94.3%1.01+5.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Harrison Bader (MIN) Under 1.5 Doubles (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Harrison Bader to have under 1.5 doubles in the upcoming game is based on his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Bader has averaged zero doubles both overall and in away games. His batting average is also low, with only 0.4 hits overall and zero hits in away games. Despite his impressive current hit streak, Bader's recent lack of doubles and low hit rate suggest that he is unlikely to hit more than one double in the upcoming game. Additionally, his performance against the Diamondbacks specifically is also underwhelming, with an average of only 0.2 doubles and 0.4 hits over the last five games. Therefore, the statistics indicate that betting on Bader to have under 1.5 doubles is a good choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Harrison Bader is averaging 0.4 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.2 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.4
Hits
0.0
HR
0.2
RBI
0.2
Runs
0.6
Walks
1.4
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Harrison Bader has gone over 1.5 total bases in 44% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.544%
o2.511%
o3.511%
o4.511%

Home / away and opponent splits

Harrison Bader is averaging 0.4 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.0 in away games, including his recent form against PHI.

0.4
Hits · Overall
0.0
Hits · Away
0.6
Hits · vs PHI
0.0
HR · Overall
0.0
HR · Away
0.0
HR · vs PHI
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Harrison Bader (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harrison Bader is Under 1.5 on Batter - Doubles. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday 21 September at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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