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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Carlson is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:28PM UTC
MLB

Dylan Carlson

BAL

+1.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -1429 (1.07)
+1.0% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 27 May, 10:35PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.5%
Implied Probability
93.5%
Model Edge
+1.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases94.5%—93.5%1.06+1.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Dylan Carlson (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Dylan Carlson in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a statistically sound choice given the provided data. Over the last five games, Carlson has not stolen any bases, whether it's overall, at home, or against the opposing team. This includes zero instances of being caught stealing, suggesting a lack of attempts altogether. His current hit streak, while impressive, does not equate to stolen bases. The high implied probability of 93.5% also indicates that the chances of this outcome occurring are extremely high. Therefore, based on Carlson's recent performance and the statistical data, it is reasonable to expect that he will not steal a base in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg hits · L5
L2050%
O 0.540%
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Dylan Carlson MLB hits: averaging 0.8 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg total bases · L5
O 1.510%
O 2.510%

Dylan Carlson MLB total bases: averaging 0.8 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
1.4avg H+R+RBI · L5

Dylan Carlson MLB hits + runs + rbis: averaging 1.4 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.8avg singles · L5
L2050%

Dylan Carlson MLB singles: averaging 0.8 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5
O 0.530%

Dylan Carlson MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dylan Carlson (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Carlson is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 27 May at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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