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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Carlson is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 1:55AM UTC
MLB

Dylan Carlson

BAL

+1.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -1429 (1.07) · $100→$107
+1.0% Edge
St. Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland · Outdoor
Tue 27 May, 10:35PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.5%
Implied Probability
93.5%
Model Edge
+1.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases94.5%—93.5%1.06+1.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Dylan Carlson (BAL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Dylan Carlson in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a statistically sound choice given the provided data. Over the last five games, Carlson has not stolen any bases, whether it's overall, at home, or against the opposing team. This includes zero instances of being caught stealing, suggesting a lack of attempts altogether. His current hit streak, while impressive, does not equate to stolen bases. The high implied probability of 93.5% also indicates that the chances of this outcome occurring are extremely high. Therefore, based on Carlson's recent performance and the statistical data, it is reasonable to expect that he will not steal a base in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Dylan Carlson is averaging 0.8 hits, 0.0 home runs and 0.4 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

0.8
Hits
0.0
HR
0.4
RBI
0.2
Runs
0.2
Walks
1.6
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: Total Bases

Dylan Carlson has gone over 1.5 total bases in 10% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.510%
o2.510%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Dylan Carlson is averaging 0.8 hits per game over his last 5 and 0.8 in away games, including his recent form against NYY.

0.8
Hits · Overall
0.8
Hits · Away
0.6
Hits · vs NYY
0.0
HR · Overall
0.0
HR · Away
0.0
HR · vs NYY
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dylan Carlson (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Carlson is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday 27 May at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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