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The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Morton is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:06PM UTC
MLB

Charlie Morton

BAL

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+3.8% Edge
Atlanta Braves @ Detroit Tigers
Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan · Outdoor
Fri 19 Sep, 10:40PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
93.1%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+3.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks93.1%—89.3%1.07+3.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Charlie Morton (BAL) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-833)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Charlie Morton's recent performance data suggests that the Over 0.5 bet on Pitcher Walks Allowed is a solid choice. His last five games have seen him allow an average of 3 walks, both overall and specifically when playing away. This indicates a consistent tendency to concede at least one walk per game. Furthermore, Morton's innings pitched (IP) average is below 5, meaning he tends to spend less time on the mound, yet still allows a significant number of walks. His current hit streak, particularly 7 games away, also supports the likelihood of allowing at least one walk. Considering these factors, Morton's statistical profile aligns well with the Over 0.5 bet on Pitcher Walks Allowed.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Charlie Morton is averaging 6.2 hits, 1.0 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

6.2
Hits
1.0
HR
0.0
RBI
5.0
Runs
3.0
Walks
4.2
Ks

Hit-rate ladder: H

Charlie Morton has gone over 1.5 H in 100% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o1.5100%
o2.590%
o3.590%
o4.580%
o5.550%
o6.530%
o7.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Charlie Morton is averaging 6.2 hits per game over his last 5 and 5.0 in away games.

6.2
Hits · Overall
5.0
Hits · Away
1.0
HR · Overall
0.4
HR · Away
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Charlie Morton (BAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Morton is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers on Friday 19 September at Comerica Park, Detroit. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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