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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Civale is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 53%, edge +19.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Over 0.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 1.50 SOlanded 10 of the last 10
Over 2.50 Hlanded 9 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 3, 2:05PM UTC
MLB

Aaron Civale

MIL

+19.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 3.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+19.7% Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Sat 16 Aug, 12:10AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.2% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +19.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts73.2%53.5%1.37+19.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Civale (MIL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Aaron Civale for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is a solid choice based on his recent performance against the Kansas City Royals. His last five games against this opponent show an average of 6.6 strikeouts, well above the line of 3.5. Furthermore, his average innings pitched and outs in these games are also higher than his overall averages, indicating that he tends to perform better against the Royals. Despite slightly lower averages in away games, his performance against this specific opponent suggests he's likely to exceed the line. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, are at zero, indicating that he's not in a slump and could be due for a strong performance. Therefore, the statistics suggest Civale is likely to achieve over 3.5 strikeouts in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent form (last 5 games)

Aaron Civale is averaging 4.0 hits, 1.4 home runs and 0.0 RBIs per game over his last 5 games.

4.0
Hits
1.4
HR
0.0
RBI
2.2
Runs
1.4
Walks
3.4
Ks

Home / away and opponent splits

Aaron Civale is averaging 4.0 hits per game over his last 5 and 4.2 in away games, including his recent form against TOR.

4.0
Hits · Overall
4.2
Hits · Away
4.5
Hits · vs TOR
1.4
HR · Overall
1.2
HR · Away
1.0
HR · vs TOR
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Civale (MIL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Civale is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals on Saturday 16 August at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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