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Aaron Civale

MIL

Value call

Aaron Civale has one live pick today: over 3.5 strikeouts that pays $187 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.2% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +19.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Fri 15 Aug, 8:10 PM ET
Aaron Civale
over 3.5 strikeouts
Pitcher - Strikeouts Over 3.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
Value call
HIGHWins about 73 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.70 Odds-115
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Aaron Civale is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On Pitcher - Strikeouts, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 12:35PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher outs unders: 145 of 250 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts73.2%—53.5%1.37+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Aaron Civale (MIL) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Aaron Civale for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts market is primarily based on his impressive performance against the Kansas City Royals. His average strikeouts against this opponent is significantly higher (6.6) than his overall average (3.4) and his average when playing away (3). This indicates that he tends to perform better against the Royals, which is the opponent in the upcoming game. Additionally, his innings pitched and outs average against the Royals are also higher, suggesting that he typically spends more time on the mound and has more opportunities to strike out batters when facing this team. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his historical performance against the Royals provides a solid rationale for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Quick answers:How many strikeouts does Aaron Civale average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Aaron Civale (MIL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Aaron Civale is Over 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals on Friday 15 August at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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