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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
New York Mets

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 21, 7:51PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Mon 22 Jun 2026, 11:10PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets -2 Spread +265

The model graded 20 markets for Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $365 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Mon 22 Jun 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win37.1%
The price says27.4%
Best price+265
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Mets -2 Long-shot37% chance +265
Spread Long-shot29% chance
Moneyline Lean60% chance
Spread Lean42% chance
Spread Long-shot33% chance
Spread Long-shot21% chance
Spread Long-shot25% chance
Spread High69% chance
Spread High65% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 840 of 1,690 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 21
Under 4.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $483
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Mets
+6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Kevin Gausman SPDay-to-day
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Dansby Swanson SSOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Matthew Boyd SP

New York Mets

  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Manaea SP
Availability updated Aug 22, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 24 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability24 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L54-1Free board8-8

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L54-1

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.1runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.4Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L54-1

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2SDHome
L2–5SDHome
W2–1SDHome
W4–3WSHHome
W5–4WSHHome
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3CHWHome
L0–3CHWHome
W7–5CHWHome
L4–11STLHome
L4–8STLHome

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.4 runs per game (2-3) while Chicago Cubs are at 6.6 (4-1); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Chicago Cubs.

3.4
New York Mets runs/G
6.6
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsChicago Cubs
Runs / game3.46.6
Hits / game5.26.8
Home runs / game0.80.6
Walks drawn / game0.83.2
Batter K / game3.42.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.42.6
Pitching K / game4.82.6
Walks allowed / game1.81.2
L5 record2-34-1

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: New York Mets won 0, Chicago Cubs won 7.

DateNew York MetsChicago CubsWinner
Jun 2534Chicago Cubs
Jun 24310Chicago Cubs
Jun 24510Chicago Cubs
Jun 2369Chicago Cubs
Apr 1912Chicago Cubs
Apr 1824Chicago Cubs
Apr 17412Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

24 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Phil Maton RPOUT
Gavin Hollowell RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Justin Steele SPOUT
Kevin Gausman SPDAY-TO-DAY

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for New York Mets playing Chicago Cubs. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs : New York Mets Win (-104)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Mets, or as Mets vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Monday 22 June 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 7 meetings
Chicago Cubs 7–0 across the last 7 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
25 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets3–4Chicago Cubs
24 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets5–10Chicago Cubs
24 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets3–10Chicago Cubs
23 Jun 2026Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets6–9Chicago Cubs
19 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs2–1Chicago Cubs
18 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs4–2Chicago Cubs
17 Apr 2026New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs12–4Chicago Cubs
Today's selected board

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